consensus estimate

Before a company reports, analysts publish their own forecasts for revenue and profit; the consensus is the average of those. Markets react less to whether results grew and more to whether they beat or missed this number, since the growth was already priced in.

Predictions & track record (3)

• Awaiting grading Why did SK Hynix's operating profit miss consensus, even with pretax profit landing above ₩100 trillion just as estimated three months ago?To be scored on whether Q3 2026 operating profit (due late October) again misses its consensus, and whether the gap narrows from this quarter's roughly 5%.
• Awaiting grading Indeed Postings Are Falling, But the Latest Official Jobs Data Just Hit a Two-Year HighCheck the BLS JOLTS job openings reports for June and July 2026 (due out in August and September) to see whether they confirm the deterioration Indeed's real-time data is already flagging.
• Hit The 'Kimi moment': a $1.3B open-weight model that could reprice the whole US AI tradeIndependent benchmarking firm Artificial Analysis ranked Kimi K3 (full weights released July 27, 2026) #3 on its Intelligence Index (score 57), matching or surpassing GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.8 -- graded hit.

6 related posts

• Watch Why did SK Hynix's operating profit miss consensus, even with pretax profit landing above ₩100 trillion just as estimated three months ago? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-28
• Bull ASML slid nearly 10% in two days on China's DUV scare, but the case behind it was thin Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch US Data Centers Will Need 194 Gigawatts by 2035, Says a Forecast That's Already Tripled in 15 Months The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch Jensen Huang's Letter Backs Open AI Models. Anthropic Didn't Sign It Jensen Huang (@JensenHuang) · 2026-07-24
• Bear Indeed Postings Are Falling, But the Latest Official Jobs Data Just Hit a Two-Year High The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Watch The 'Kimi moment': a $1.3B open-weight model that could reprice the whole US AI trade 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-18