CPI

The Consumer Price Index tracks the average change in prices for a basket of goods and services households actually buy. It's the most-watched inflation gauge, so a reading below expectations is read as room for the central bank to cut rates, which is why bonds, stocks and currencies can swing hard on a single release.

Predictions & track record (2)

• Awaiting grading The won came back 115 against the dollar in a month, and not because the dollar weakenedScore on August equity flows and the rate. If foreign investors return to heavy net selling and the rate still holds below 1,450 at month end, count it as the surplus coming through, and if the rate slides back above 1,500 as selling resumes, count it as a lull.
• Awaiting grading The Fed swapped its inflation yardstick from CPI to PCE, and accuracy was not the only reasonScore on the July PCE released in late August: a return to a positive month-over-month reading counts as a one month energy effect, while a second straight decline or core PCE below 3.1% counts as a trend.

3 related posts

• Watch The won came back 115 against the dollar in a month, and not because the dollar weakened 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-08-01
• Watch The Fed swapped its inflation yardstick from CPI to PCE, and accuracy was not the only reason 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-31
• Bull Trump spikes the football on June CPI, 'biggest monthly price drop in six years' Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) · 2026-07-17