If exporters leave the dollars they earned sitting abroad, the surplus grows while nothing is converted into the home currency. That is how a country can post a record surplus and watch its currency weaken at the same time. The figure on the ledger and the cash crossing the FX market are different numbers.
Watch 1
Predictions & track record (1)
Awaiting gradingThe won came back 115 against the dollar in a month, and not because the dollar weakenedScore on August equity flows and the rate. If foreign investors return to heavy net selling and the rate still holds below 1,450 at month end, count it as the surplus coming through, and if the rate slides back above 1,500 as selling resumes, count it as a lull.