dot-com bubble

Money chased profitless companies on the belief that the internet would change everything; the Nasdaq peaked at 5,048 in March 2000 and fell 78% by 2002. The prediction itself proved right, the internet did change the world, but investment that ran ahead of when and how much it would earn collapsed anyway. Every technology transition gets measured against it, and the AI buildout debate is no exception.

Predictions & track record (2)

• Awaiting grading Global household wealth hit a record $570 trillion. Only a fifth of the increase was newly created.Score as a hit if the US personal saving rate published through the end of September rises above 3%, showing households absorbing assets with their own money, and as a miss if it stays in the 2% range while Asian margin balances keep falling.
• Awaiting grading Margin Debt Hit a Record $1.5 Trillion, Much of It Concentrated in AI Leveraged ETFsCheck whether the next pullback shows cracks first in specific corners like AI/semiconductor leveraged ETFs, or spreads across the broader market.

3 related posts

• Watch Global household wealth hit a record $570 trillion. Only a fifth of the increase was newly created. The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-08-03
• Watch Why Nvidia is guaranteeing $250 billion of OpenAI's debt: the same reason showed up in the fiber-optic bubble 25 years ago 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-28
• Bear Margin Debt Hit a Record $1.5 Trillion, Much of It Concentrated in AI Leveraged ETFs The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-25