earnings surprise

It is measured against the estimate, not against last year, so a company can grow profit strongly and still deliver a negative surprise. Index-level surprise figures are averages, which means one or two very large gains can lift the whole number without the typical company doing anything unusual.

Predictions & track record (3)

• Awaiting grading Q2 earnings are beating estimates by a record 31%. Take out two companies and it is 9%.Score as a hit if FactSet's final Q2 tally, once all companies have reported, shows an earnings surprise above 10% excluding Alphabet and Amazon, and as a miss if it comes in below.
• Awaiting grading The S&P 500's Record 15.7% Margin Drops to 14.4% Without AlphabetCheck after Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple report Q2 results whether their margins improved similarly, that determines whether 15.7% reflects a broad AI boom or an Alphabet-sized illusion.
• Awaiting grading Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205BCheck in the following weeks whether optics and networking suppliers like $LITE rally on Google's raised capex guidance, and whether Microsoft and Meta echo the same capex increase when they report next week.

3 related posts

• Watch Q2 earnings are beating estimates by a record 31%. Take out two companies and it is 9%. The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-08-02
• Watch The S&P 500's Record 15.7% Margin Drops to 14.4% Without Alphabet The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-26
• Bull Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-22