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Glossary
FCF
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditure, known as FCF. Unlike accounting profit, it's what actually lands in the bank, and dividends, buybacks and debt repayment are all funded from it. Record profits alongside negative free cash flow means the company is pouring more into facilities, AI data centers being the current case, than it earns.
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Predictions & track record (3) Awaiting grading Google Posted a Record Quarterly Profit, and Its First Negative Cash Flow in 21 Years Check whether Alphabet's free cash flow turns positive again in Q3, and whether SpaceX holds its current share price (around $110s). Awaiting grading Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK Hynix Check at Alphabet's Q3 2026 earnings, expected around late October, whether free cash flow returns positive and cloud order backlog keeps growing past the $514B Q2 level. Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit Alphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction. 4 related posts
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