마진

The share of the sale price kept as profit; a high-margin product leaves more money from the same revenue.

Predictions & track record (8)

• Awaiting grading S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season DeliversCheck at Q3 2026 earnings season whether the S&P 500 net margin holds above 15.7% or reverses.
• Awaiting grading SanDisk sold NAND to Meta below its own quote. Does that mean demand is dying?To be scored on whether Q3 2026 QLC contract pricing settles above $0.38, and whether SanDisk's LTA share actually clears half of shipments.
• Awaiting grading A Morgan Stanley note turning bearish on memory chips is real, and may be behind Korea's KOSPI pullback, analyst Jukan confirmsCheck whether Q4 2026 memory price increases actually slow to around 5% quarter-over-quarter as Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim projected, or come in hotter, which would support the bull case instead.
• Awaiting grading Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205BCheck in the following weeks whether optics and networking suppliers like $LITE rally on Google's raised capex guidance, and whether Microsoft and Meta echo the same capex increase when they report next week.
• Awaiting grading TSMC to raise foundry prices up to 10% in 2027, with bigger premiums for rush AI chip ordersCheck in early 2027 whether TSMC's new pricing (5-10% base, plus 10-15% premium on extra HPC orders) takes effect as reported and how customers respond.
• Awaiting grading Supermicro shares jump 20% on record $60 billion order backlog despite soft revenueCheck Supermicro's audited fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 results on August 11, 2026, to see if the 60 billion dollar backlog and 15 to 17 percent margin guidance hold up.
• Awaiting grading Nvidia's CMX could soak up huge volumes of NAND, an Apple-sized new buyerScore later: does CMX-linked NAND demand actually climb toward the cited 100M+ terabytes in 2027?
• Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profitAlphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction.

16 related posts

• Watch S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season Delivers The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-26
• Watch SanDisk sold NAND to Meta below its own quote. Does that mean demand is dying? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bear US net credit balances hit a record negative $1.06 trillion as margin debt surges to $1.5 trillion The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-25
• Watch Apple lobbies White House to allow Chinese memory chips as Micron pushes back, WSJ reports Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bear China's CXMT gets bold enough to push around Huawei on chip prices, and now charges more than Samsung for memory, analyst Jukan reports Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bear A Morgan Stanley note turning bearish on memory chips is real, and may be behind Korea's KOSPI pullback, analyst Jukan confirms Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bear China's YMTC overtakes Micron and SanDisk in NAND market share, closing in on Kioxia Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Bull China's Star 50 tech fund pulls in a record $2 billion in a single day, driving the index's best day in nearly two years The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-22
• Bull TSMC to raise foundry prices up to 10% in 2027, with bigger premiums for rush AI chip orders Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Bull Supermicro shares jump 20% on record $60 billion order backlog despite soft revenue The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-21
• Bear China unwinds $37 billion in margin debt over four days as memory chip stocks lead the rout The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Nvidia's CMX could soak up huge volumes of NAND, an Apple-sized new buyer Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Goldman's 163% upside call on Innolight is a read-through for the whole optics chain Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-17
• Zuckerberg opens Meta's model API: agentic performance at a discount Mark Zuckerberg (@finkd) · 2026-07-09