Kevin Warsh

Chair of the US Federal Reserve, known for declining to signal decisions in advance.

Predictions & track record (4)

• Awaiting grading Why has Fed Chair Warsh decided to stop telling you the next move at his press conference?Score on reactions to data releases through the September FOMC. If rate futures swing noticeably wider on inflation and jobs days than they averaged in the first half, count it as losing guidance's cushion, and if the moves are similar or smaller, count it as a normalisation toward the data.
• Awaiting grading If quarterly earnings and Fed guidance both get cut back, what will the market price on?In the first half of 2027, score whether the SEC adopted the semiannual reporting rule and whether any listed company actually elected it.
• Awaiting grading Why did all three dissents at the Fed's fifth straight hold argue for a hike?Score at the September FOMC: a hike, or hawkish dissents growing to four or more, counts for the three who dissented.
• Awaiting grading The 10-Year yield just topped last year's tariff-panic peak. Is Iran the reason, or is it the Fed?Check whether the 10-Year yield keeps climbing past this level toward 5% or whether it retreats as Iran war tensions ease over the following two to three weeks.

4 related posts

• Watch Why has Fed Chair Warsh decided to stop telling you the next move at his press conference? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-31
• Watch If quarterly earnings and Fed guidance both get cut back, what will the market price on? Aswath Damodaran (Musings on Markets) · 2026-07-29
• Watch Why did all three dissents at the Fed's fifth straight hold argue for a hike? The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-29
• Bear The 10-Year yield just topped last year's tariff-panic peak. Is Iran the reason, or is it the Fed? The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23