long-dated bonds

Long-end yields respond more to deficits and issuance than to the policy rate, so a rise in long yields after a rate cut reads as the market worrying about fiscal policy.

Predictions & track record (3)

• Awaiting grading The U.S. Treasury will borrow more, but long-term issuance stays flatOn November 4, 2026, check whether long-term auction sizes increase or short-term bill issuance rises materially in the next quarterly borrowing plan.
• Hit 10-Year Treasury yield nears 4.70% high as Iran war adds 70bp premiumThe 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.707% on July 23, 2026, breaking above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025 (driven by an oil-price spike from a tanker attack near Saudi Arabia and the threat of strikes on Iran, plus stronger-than-expected employment data), and the 30-year yield also topped 5% and stayed above it for its longest stretch since 2007 (5.18% as of 8/4). Yields pulled back somewhat in early August on hopes of Iran tensions easing (10-year at 4.63% as of 8/5), but the predicted breakout had already occurred.
• Awaiting grading America's borrowing bill is climbing, and AI is helping push it upGrade at end of Q3 2026: did the 30-year US Treasury yield break above the May 20th peak of 5.20%?

3 related posts

• Watch The U.S. Treasury will borrow more, but long-term issuance stays flat 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-08-07
• Bear 10-Year Treasury yield nears 4.70% high as Iran war adds 70bp premium The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bear America's borrowing bill is climbing, and AI is helping push it up The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-19