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Big Tech
MICROSOFTMSFT.US
The world's largest software company, founded in 1975 by Bill Gates and Paul Allen. From Windows and Office it has shifted its growth engine to Azure cloud and AI, backing OpenAI as its biggest investor and pouring tens of billions a year into AI infrastructure. CEO Satya Nadella has led the cloud-first transformation since 2014.
CEO Satya NadellaFounded 1975Listed 1986.3HQ Redmond, USAExchange NASDAQWebsite microsoft.com
Bull 4 Watch 4 Bear 1
Predictions & track record (8) Awaiting grading S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season Delivers Check at Q3 2026 earnings season whether the S&P 500 net margin holds above 15.7% or reverses. Awaiting grading SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat? Check whether AMD actually reaches SemiAnalysis's revised October 2026 target for CI test parity with Nvidia's CUDA on vLLM and SGLang gating tests. Awaiting grading Nvidia's real moat is software, not silicon. Can AI coding tools crack it in a year? Grade around mid-2027 whether Huawei's chip software ecosystem (DeepSeek's compiler and TileLang tooling) has closed the gap with CUDA as Wenfeng predicted, and whether Nvidia's China-exposed growth underperformed as a result. Awaiting grading Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B Check in the following weeks whether optics and networking suppliers like $LITE rally on Google's raised capex guidance, and whether Microsoft and Meta echo the same capex increase when they report next week. Awaiting grading Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driver Grade in Q3 2026, once Q2 earnings season is complete, whether semiconductor companies' contribution to S&P 500 EPS growth actually reached the ~48% Kobeissi projected, and whether Amazon/Google/Meta/Microsoft's combined contribution fell to roughly 9%. Awaiting grading Analyst raises AMD price target to $640, says Anthropic deal could beat Meta and OpenAI's Track whether AMD officially confirms Anthropic as a gigawatt-scale customer and whether the stock approaches the $640 price target over the following months. Awaiting grading Neoclouds rip higher as IREN lifts its AI-cloud revenue target above $4B Score later: does IREN's recurring-revenue run-rate actually reach the $4B+ target it guided to here? Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit Alphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction. 11 related posts
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