operating cash flow

Profit is an accounting figure; operating cash flow is what actually arrived. Subtract capital spending from it and you get free cash flow, which is the number that tells you whether a build-out is being funded from the business or from somewhere else.

Predictions & track record (2)

• Awaiting grading Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK HynixCheck at Alphabet's Q3 2026 earnings, expected around late October, whether free cash flow returns positive and cloud order backlog keeps growing past the $514B Q2 level.
• Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profitAlphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction.

3 related posts

• Watch The $2.6 trillion is on nobody's balance sheet The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-08-11
• Bull Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK Hynix 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-23
• Watch Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20