S&P500

It holds the 500 largest listed US companies by market value and serves as the de facto answer to whether the US market rose or fell today. Because it's cap-weighted, giants like Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft dominate its moves, and there are stretches when 'the S&P 500 rose' means roughly the same thing as 'big tech rose.'

Predictions & track record (5)

• Awaiting grading S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season DeliversCheck at Q3 2026 earnings season whether the S&P 500 net margin holds above 15.7% or reverses.
• Awaiting grading US equity ETFs pull in a record $880 billion this year, on pace to blow past 2025's inflow recordCheck full-year 2026 US equity ETF inflow totals against Kobeissi's $1.4 trillion projection once year-end data is reported in early January 2027.
• Awaiting grading S&P 500 erases $900 billion in market cap in a single day as Nasdaq 100 drops over 2.5% on Iran war escalation and tech earningsCheck whether the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recover this single-day loss within a week, or whether the selloff deepens as the Iran war continues.
• Awaiting grading Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driverGrade in Q3 2026, once Q2 earnings season is complete, whether semiconductor companies' contribution to S&P 500 EPS growth actually reached the ~48% Kobeissi projected, and whether Amazon/Google/Meta/Microsoft's combined contribution fell to roughly 9%.
• Awaiting grading Bilello asks: are we in an earnings bubble?Grade after full-year 2026 results: did S&P 500 realized EPS growth come in near the ~24% expectation, or well below?

11 related posts

• Watch The semiconductor bear case hasn't changed in months. So why is the selling happening now? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season Delivers The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-26
• Bull US equity ETFs pull in a record $880 billion this year, on pace to blow past 2025's inflow record The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Bear Intel's post-earnings rally evaporates, wiping out $90 billion in market cap in a single day The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch S&P 500 erases its gains and turns red as the Iran war escalates and tech stocks fall The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Bear S&P 500 erases $900 billion in market cap in a single day as Nasdaq 100 drops over 2.5% on Iran war escalation and tech earnings The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Watch Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driver The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Watch S&P 500 stocks have almost never moved this independently, an all-time-low correlation The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Trump's Truth Social to sell a $100K/month 'Truth API', his posts, a millisecond early, for the algos 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-19
• Watch The same profit is worth less depending on where it's earned. How does Damodaran price that? Aswath Damodaran (Musings on Markets) · 2026-07-15
• Bear Bilello asks: are we in an earnings bubble? Charlie Bilello · 2026-07-14