Brent

Roughly two-thirds of the world's traded crude is priced off Brent, so it reacts first to anything affecting seaborne supply, including shipping chokepoints. WTI is the US equivalent, and the gap between the two shows how much of a move is a global shipping story rather than a domestic American one.

Predictions & track record (6)

• Awaiting grading Trump says Iran asked him to call off the strike. So why does Tehran say it never did?Score as a hit if tanker transits through Hormuz without prior Revolutionary Guards permission are confirmed by the end of August, and as a miss if passage stays permission-based or the closure holds.
• Awaiting grading Trump says he's close to Iran's 'biggest attack ever.' Will this time be different?Check within roughly two weeks whether the US actually carries out the strike on Iran that Trump described as bigger than ever before, or whether the rhetoric fades without action as it has before.
• Hit The market didn't lose $900 billion to the Iran war on July 23. It lost $797 billion to AI-capex fearsBy July 29, 2026 the AI-capex-driven selloff had deepened rather than recovered: the Nasdaq 100 fell into correction territory (down over 10% from its June record) and the VanEck semiconductor ETF dropped for a fourth straight session, confirming AI-capex fears -- not the Iran war -- kept driving the market, as the original piece had argued.
• Awaiting grading Iran threatens to hit energy sites if the US bombs its power plants over Hormuz shotsGrade within the next few weeks whether either side follows through, an actual US strike on an Iranian power plant or bridge, or an Iranian strike on an energy site, or whether the standoff stays rhetorical.
• Awaiting grading Trump threatens to bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant for every shot fired in the Strait of HormuzCheck in the following weeks whether Iran fires at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz again, and if so, whether the US follows through with a strike on an Iranian bridge or power plant as Trump warned.
• Hit Iran says it hit an Amazon datacenter in Bahrain, oil jumps back above $90Brent briefly dipped below $90 on 7/27 as an Iran-US pause held, but jumped back above $90 on 7/29 after Trump threatened Iran, and closed at $92.27/barrel as of 7/31, confirming Kobeissi's call that Brent would hold above $90 through end of July.

10 related posts

• Watch Trump says Iran asked him to call off the strike. So why does Tehran say it never did? Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) · 2026-08-02
• Watch The S&P 500's Iran War Selloff Was Actually Three Different Days, and Iran Wasn't the Main Reason for Most of Them The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch Trump says he's close to Iran's 'biggest attack ever.' Will this time be different? The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear The market didn't lose $900 billion to the Iran war on July 23. It lost $797 billion to AI-capex fears The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Oil crossed $100 again. The same war already took it to $126, then gave back 38% of that in ten weeks The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Brent crude jumps above $98 a barrel after Houthi forces strike two Saudi oil tankers, as US crude tops $90 for the first time since June 11 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Iran threatens to hit energy sites if the US bombs its power plants over Hormuz shots The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Trump threatens to bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant for every shot fired in the Strait of Hormuz Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Iran says it hit an Amazon datacenter in Bahrain, oil jumps back above $90 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-21
• Watch Mediators push a US-Iran ceasefire as Hormuz traffic collapses to 10 ships a day The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20