CAPEX

In chipmaking, heavy capex today (new fabs, new tools) shows up as depreciation charges for years afterward, which is why a capex boom can squeeze near-term profit margins even while it builds the capacity investors may want later.

Predictions & track record (13)

• Awaiting grading Google Posted a Record Quarterly Profit, and Its First Negative Cash Flow in 21 YearsCheck whether Alphabet's free cash flow turns positive again in Q3, and whether SpaceX holds its current share price (around $110s).
• Awaiting grading Apple's stock rose just 1%. Why did it just become the world's most valuable company?To be scored in the first run of August: whether Apple's Thursday (7/30) earnings show capex guidance climbing again, and whether Apple holds onto the market-cap lead.
• Awaiting grading Substrates, Memory and Specialty Gas All Tighten at Once in the AI Chip Supply ChainCheck whether substrate, DDR5 and WF6 prices keep climbing together next quarter, and whether actual AI server shipment delays get reported.
• Awaiting grading Intel posts Q2 revenue up 25% and its best quarterly growth in over 15 years, as shares surge more than 11% on AI data center demandCheck Intel's next quarterly report, expected around late October 2026, to see whether revenue lands in the guided $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion range and whether the AI data center segment keeps growing at a similar pace.
• Awaiting grading Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK HynixCheck at Alphabet's Q3 2026 earnings, expected around late October, whether free cash flow returns positive and cloud order backlog keeps growing past the $514B Q2 level.
• Awaiting grading Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai touts Gemini's 950M monthly users and 22B tokens processed per minute in his own take on an "amazing" Q2Check Alphabet's next quarterly report, expected around late October 2026, for an updated Gemini monthly active user count and API token throughput, to see whether growth keeps pace with this quarter's jump.
• Awaiting grading Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205BCheck in the following weeks whether optics and networking suppliers like $LITE rally on Google's raised capex guidance, and whether Microsoft and Meta echo the same capex increase when they report next week.
• Awaiting grading Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driverGrade in Q3 2026, once Q2 earnings season is complete, whether semiconductor companies' contribution to S&P 500 EPS growth actually reached the ~48% Kobeissi projected, and whether Amazon/Google/Meta/Microsoft's combined contribution fell to roughly 9%.
• Awaiting grading Trump sets 2-year tariff grace period for generic drugs, then 100%, then 200%Check whether the zero percent tariff on generic drugs actually rises to 100% around August 2028 as scheduled, or whether the policy is delayed or changed before then.
• Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profitAlphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction.
• Hit The 'Kimi moment': a $1.3B open-weight model that could reprice the whole US AI tradeIndependent benchmarking firm Artificial Analysis ranked Kimi K3 (full weights released July 27, 2026) #3 on its Intelligence Index (score 57), matching or surpassing GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.8 -- graded hit.
• Awaiting grading Bilello asks: are we in an earnings bubble?Grade after full-year 2026 results: did S&P 500 realized EPS growth come in near the ~24% expectation, or well below?
• Awaiting grading SemiAnalysis: inside Meta's five-front, multi-gigawatt bid to catch OpenAI and AnthropicScore at end of 2026: does Meta actually have more AI compute than OpenAI and Anthropic, as SemiAnalysis projects?

21 related posts

• Watch Google Posted a Record Quarterly Profit, and Its First Negative Cash Flow in 21 Years Charlie Bilello · 2026-07-28
• Watch Apple's stock rose just 1%. Why did it just become the world's most valuable company? 後藤達也 (Tatsuya Goto) · 2026-07-28
• Watch The semiconductor bear case hasn't changed in months. So why is the selling happening now? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch Substrates, Memory and Specialty Gas All Tighten at Once in the AI Chip Supply Chain Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-26
• Bear Oracle's credit-default insurance jumps to a record high, with S&P placing the company just one notch above junk The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Bull Intel posts Q2 revenue up 25% and its best quarterly growth in over 15 years, as shares surge more than 11% on AI data center demand The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Reuters: Intel and AMD in talks for multi-year CPU supply deals with Chinese customers as prices surge and lead times stretch to six months Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK Hynix 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai touts Gemini's 950M monthly users and 22B tokens processed per minute in his own take on an "amazing" Q2 Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-22
• Watch Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driver The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Watch Trump sets 2-year tariff grace period for generic drugs, then 100%, then 200% Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) · 2026-07-21
• Watch Korea and the Nasdaq are moving in lockstep like never before, as the AI trade goes global The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-21
• Watch Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Serenity smells more AI capex coming, frontier models are out of capacity Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-19
• Watch The 'Kimi moment': a $1.3B open-weight model that could reprice the whole US AI trade 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-18
• Bull Goldman's 163% upside call on Innolight is a read-through for the whole optics chain Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-17
• Bull Trump touts TSMC's record $265B Arizona chip bet, 'build here, and NO TARIFFS' Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) · 2026-07-17
• Trump calls datacenters 'liquid gold' and puts New York on blast for banning them Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) · 2026-07-16
• Bear Bilello asks: are we in an earnings bubble? Charlie Bilello · 2026-07-14
• Bull SemiAnalysis: inside Meta's five-front, multi-gigawatt bid to catch OpenAI and Anthropic SemiAnalysis · 2026-07-09