hyperscaler

Hyperscalers are the biggest buyers of AI chips and power, so their spending plans move the whole semiconductor and energy supply chain. Their capex guidance is watched as a proxy for AI demand.

Predictions & track record (8)

• Awaiting grading A new warning: US natural gas could run short by 2028, and this time it's demand, not supplyGrade in mid-2028: is US natural gas supply starting to fall short of demand as Smith predicted, with storage tracking toward depletion by 2030?
• Awaiting grading Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK HynixCheck at Alphabet's Q3 2026 earnings, expected around late October, whether free cash flow returns positive and cloud order backlog keeps growing past the $514B Q2 level.
• Awaiting grading Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205BCheck in the following weeks whether optics and networking suppliers like $LITE rally on Google's raised capex guidance, and whether Microsoft and Meta echo the same capex increase when they report next week.
• Awaiting grading Supermicro shares jump 20% on record $60 billion order backlog despite soft revenueCheck Supermicro's audited fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 results on August 11, 2026, to see if the 60 billion dollar backlog and 15 to 17 percent margin guidance hold up.
• Awaiting grading Server DRAM spot prices blow out to a 146% premiumGrade after major hyperscalers report Q2/Q3 2026 earnings: did server DRAM contract prices post a clear upward revision, following the July spot surge?
• Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profitAlphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction.
• Hit The 'Kimi moment': a $1.3B open-weight model that could reprice the whole US AI tradeIndependent benchmarking firm Artificial Analysis ranked Kimi K3 (full weights released July 27, 2026) #3 on its Intelligence Index (score 57), matching or surpassing GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.8 -- graded hit.
• Awaiting grading Bilello asks: are we in an earnings bubble?Grade after full-year 2026 results: did S&P 500 realized EPS growth come in near the ~24% expectation, or well below?

14 related posts

• Watch A new warning: US natural gas could run short by 2028, and this time it's demand, not supply Doomberg · 2026-07-26
• Watch US data center power demand seen surging 253% by 2035, to 194 gigawatts The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch Wall Street stops trading AI chipmakers and AI spenders as one trade, as their 30-day correlation collapses toward zero The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Bear Oracle's credit-default insurance jumps to a record high, with S&P placing the company just one notch above junk The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch AMD's Helios networking partners expect the company to adopt co-packaged optics for future AI racks, pushing back on reports of supply chain delays Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK Hynix 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Supermicro shares jump 20% on record $60 billion order backlog despite soft revenue The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-21
• Bull Server DRAM spot prices blow out to a 146% premium Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Serenity smells more AI capex coming, frontier models are out of capacity Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-19
• Watch The 'Kimi moment': a $1.3B open-weight model that could reprice the whole US AI trade 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-18
• Trump calls datacenters 'liquid gold' and puts New York on blast for banning them Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) · 2026-07-16
• Bear Bilello asks: are we in an earnings bubble? Charlie Bilello · 2026-07-14