The US could face a demand-driven natural gas shortage starting in 2028, with working storage potentially running out by 2030, according to a widely read energy newsletter. Matthew Smith, who runs investment firm Chronometer Partners, laid out the case in a recent letter, and Doomberg reviewed it and added its own take. Natural gas is the same fuel that heats stoves and furnaces in millions of homes, and it's also the single largest fuel burned to generate US electricity. Domestic shale gas production has more than doubled over the past 15 years, to over 100 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), and Smith doesn't dispute that growth.
His concern lies elsewhere. Much of the power AI data centers consume ultimately comes from gas-fired plants. If data center buildout keeps accelerating faster than gas production can scale, supply eventually falls behind demand. Smith puts that turning point at 2028, and says storage could run dry by 2030 if the trend holds. Doomberg has historically been skeptical of "the US is about to run out of gas" narratives, pointing to a long history of ever-rising shale output despite rock-bottom prices. Even so, the newsletter said it found much to agree with in Smith's letter, and only a few points worth doubting, though which specific points remain behind its paywall.
Storage isn't short right now. Smith's warning is about 2028 onward, when demand growth outpaces production, not today's inventory.
2026-07-23 · EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (week of July 17)
Why it matters · If a demand-driven gas shortage materializes as AI data centers scale up, it adds a new bottleneck, and cost, on top of chips and electricity, one that could favor gas producers and pressure hyperscalers' power bills.
Worth asking · Is a 2028 natural gas shortage a real new bottleneck for the AI buildout, or just the latest version of a supply-cliff warning that's been wrong before?