Doomberg picks apart the Energy Institute's newly released 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy and argues the popular 'renewables are winning' story rests on a sleight of hand. The trick, it says, is conflating electricity, where solar and wind do show up big, with total primary energy, the full amount an economy burns for power, heat, transport and industry. On that broader measure, hydrocarbons still supplied 86.24% of the world's primary energy in 2025, and oil, gas and coal each set fresh consumption records. A headline that 'renewables accounted for a third of global primary energy growth in 2025' sounds impressive until you notice total energy grew only about 1%, so a third of a sliver is still a sliver. China gets celebrated for building more solar than anyone, yet it also burns 56% of the world's coal and emits 31% of global CO2 (versus 5% of coal and 13% of emissions for the US). The provocative call: China's 2025 solar installations will 'almost certainly' mark a high-water mark that stands for many years, implying new additions have peaked rather than launched a permanent climb. For investors, it's a reminder to separate the electricity story from the far bigger energy story before betting on the pace of the transition.
Why it matters · Before betting on the energy transition's speed, separate the electricity story from the far bigger primary-energy story, where fossil fuels still set records.
Worth asking · Has China's solar boom really peaked, or is Doomberg fighting the last war against an unstoppable transition?