INDIUM PHOSPHIDE

A semiconductor material that generates laser light; above 100 gigabits per second there is still no substitute. China controls roughly 70% of global refined indium, so when China tightens exports, Western optics makers like Coherent and Lumentum cannot scale production.

Predictions & track record (3)

• Awaiting grading Why does AXT's backlog refuse to shrink after revenue grew 164% in a year?First check at AXT's Q3 2026 earnings (expected early Nov 2026): indium phosphide capacity-expansion progress and GAAP gross margin. Margin holding around 50% means AXT is capturing pricing power; a drop into the mid-40s signals the shortage premium fading. Full confirmation of the capacity doubling checked after year-end.
• Awaiting grading Four big tech firms have guided 2026 AI capex up to $745 billion, and a third of that money is borrowedScore on third-quarter results, looking at capex and funding together. Capex rising while bond issuance and equity raises shrink counts as operating cash catching up, and both rising together counts as deepening reliance on credit.
• Awaiting grading Lumentum handed its wafer supplier $43.5 million up front, and it was not payment for goodsAt AXT's third-quarter results in November 2026, score whether indium phosphide revenue stepped up from the $13.6 million of the first quarter and whether the backlog above $100 million began converting into revenue.

5 related posts

• Watch The weapon America wants to use against Chinese transceivers is made in China Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-08-04
• Bull Why does AXT's backlog refuse to shrink after revenue grew 164% in a year? Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-31
• Watch Four big tech firms have guided 2026 AI capex up to $745 billion, and a third of that money is borrowed Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-31
• Watch Lumentum handed its wafer supplier $43.5 million up front, and it was not payment for goods Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-29
• Bull The 'Photonics CEO' Who Said Pluggables Have 10 Years Left Runs a Laser Supplier, Not AAOI Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-24