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Glossary
STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Because so much seaborne oil and gas has no practical alternative route, any disruption, blockade or attack near the Strait tends to move global energy prices immediately, making it one of the most closely watched chokepoints for markets during any Iran-related conflict.
Bull 7 Watch 5 Bear 1
Predictions & track record (7) Awaiting grading Meru: oil isn't the whole story behind the Treasury yield spike, the US deficit and Big Tech debt are crowding it too Check whether the August 5, 2026 US Treasury quarterly refunding statement drops the "at least" language guaranteeing stable auction sizes, which would signal more Treasury issuance ahead. Awaiting grading Trump says he's 'close' to a decision on a massive attack on Iran, Axios reports Check within roughly two weeks whether the US actually carries out the strike on Iran that Trump described as bigger than ever before, or whether the rhetoric fades without action as it has before. Awaiting grading 10-Year Treasury yield nears 4.70% high as Iran war adds 70bp premium Check whether the 10-Year yield breaks above the 4.70% 52-week high and the 30-Year stays above 5.00%, or whether yields retreat as Iran war tensions ease. Awaiting grading Iran threatens to hit energy sites if the US bombs its power plants over Hormuz shots Grade within the next few weeks whether either side follows through, an actual US strike on an Iranian power plant or bridge, or an Iranian strike on an energy site, or whether the standoff stays rhetorical. Awaiting grading Trump threatens to bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant for every shot fired in the Strait of Hormuz Check in the following weeks whether Iran fires at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz again, and if so, whether the US follows through with a strike on an Iranian bridge or power plant as Trump warned. Awaiting grading Iran says it hit an Amazon datacenter in Bahrain, oil jumps back above $90 Check whether Brent crude holds above $90/barrel through the end of July 2026, as Kobeissi projected. Awaiting grading Houthis declare a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening oil's last detour after Hormuz Score later: does US retail gasoline stay above $4/gallon (diesel above $5) in the following weeks, and is Bab-el-Mandeb transit actually disrupted rather than just insured at a premium? 16 related posts
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