It starts with a funeral. Iran's supreme leader Khamenei, killed in February, was finally buried thanks to the ceasefire, and Yemen's Houthi rebels sent a delegation. The trouble came on the way home: as their plane approached Sana'a airport, missiles hit the runway. The plane was fine, but the Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia, declared their four-year truce over, and fired missiles at a Saudi airport. Why does this matter for oil? Because the world's detour route is at stake. Since Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia has rerouted 70% of its exports through Red Sea ports, and Korean tankers load there too. And the Red Sea's front door, the 29km-wide Bab-el-Mandeb strait carrying 10% of seaborne crude, is exactly what the Houthis sit on. Meru's read: Saudi hit the runway, not the plane, as a warning. But the Houthis, famous for fighting to the death, don't do warnings. After Hormuz, the back door for oil could close too.
Why it matters · Hormuz risk was priced. A Red Sea closure on top of it is not: it kills the detour that has been keeping supply, and Korea's crude imports, moving.
Worth asking · If the Red Sea closes too, where does oil go?