TSMCTSM.US

Founded in 1987 by Morris Chang, the world's first and largest chip foundry. It effectively monopolizes leading-edge production for Apple, Nvidia and AMD, with ~90% share at advanced nodes. Its Taiwan concentration puts it at the center of geopolitical risk, hence new fabs in the US and Japan.

CEO C.C. Wei · Founded 1987 · HQ Hsinchu, Taiwan · Exchange NYSE (ADR) · Website tsmc.com

Predictions & track record (8)

• Awaiting grading Substrates, Memory and Specialty Gas All Tighten at Once in the AI Chip Supply ChainCheck whether substrate, DDR5 and WF6 prices keep climbing together next quarter, and whether actual AI server shipment delays get reported.
• Awaiting grading SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat?Check whether AMD actually reaches SemiAnalysis's revised October 2026 target for CI test parity with Nvidia's CUDA on vLLM and SGLang gating tests.
• Awaiting grading Intel confirms it decided in Q2 to go full high-volume production on its 14A chip process by 2028, a year ahead of what the market had assumedCheck whether Intel actually begins 14A risk production for internal products in the second half of 2027 as guided, the first checkpoint toward the stated 2028 high-volume ramp.
• Awaiting grading Nvidia's advanced chip packaging plan is hitting technical snags that could threaten its 2029 roadmapCheck by H1 2027 whether TSMC has resolved the soldering issue on 9.5x reticle CoWoS-L packaging, and by 2029 whether Nvidia's Feynman GPU architecture ships on its expected schedule or slips due to packaging constraints.
• Awaiting grading TSMC to raise foundry prices up to 10% in 2027, with bigger premiums for rush AI chip ordersCheck in early 2027 whether TSMC's new pricing (5-10% base, plus 10-15% premium on extra HPC orders) takes effect as reported and how customers respond.
• Awaiting grading Trump signs a fresh 50% tariff on Canadian goods, effective in 30 daysScore later: do these tariffs actually take effect around 2026-08-19 as scheduled, or get negotiated down, delayed, or challenged before then?
• Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profitAlphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction.
• Awaiting grading July 29: the SK Hynix ADR premium finally gets a closing mechanismScoring after the July 29 ADR conversion window opens: does the premium compress?

12 related posts

• Watch Substrates, Memory and Specialty Gas All Tighten at Once in the AI Chip Supply Chain Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-26
• Bull SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat? SemiAnalysis · 2026-07-25
• Watch Equipment delivery times for chipmakers have nearly doubled, and Samsung and SK hynix are now placing orders early to get ahead of the delay Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bull Intel confirms it decided in Q2 to go full high-volume production on its 14A chip process by 2028, a year ahead of what the market had assumed Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Musk repeats Optimus is Tesla's 'biggest product ever' as Q2 call flags Micron memory allocation and new supplier buildout Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-23
• Watch Nvidia's advanced chip packaging plan is hitting technical snags that could threaten its 2029 roadmap Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Bull TSMC to raise foundry prices up to 10% in 2027, with bigger premiums for rush AI chip orders Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Watch Trump signs a fresh 50% tariff on Canadian goods, effective in 30 days The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Goldman's 163% upside call on Innolight is a read-through for the whole optics chain Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-17
• Bull Trump touts TSMC's record $265B Arizona chip bet, 'build here, and NO TARIFFS' Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) · 2026-07-17
• July 29: the SK Hynix ADR premium finally gets a closing mechanism 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-16