unrealised gain

Accounting rules require holdings such as stakes in other companies to be carried at their latest valuation, and the change flows through net income. That makes reported profit move with the price someone else set in the most recent funding round or market close, and it cuts both ways: a lower valuation writes the same amount back out.

Predictions & track record (5)

• Awaiting grading Q2 earnings are beating estimates by a record 31%. Take out two companies and it is 9%.Score as a hit if FactSet's final Q2 tally, once all companies have reported, shows an earnings surprise above 10% excluding Alphabet and Amazon, and as a miss if it comes in below.
• Awaiting grading Why did the pension fund that always bought Korea's trading halts sell into five of them this year?Score at the next KOSPI circuit breaker: net buying above 1 trillion won means the constraint genuinely loosened, while a figure back in the low hundreds of billions means the purchases were mechanical.
• Awaiting grading Google Posted a Record Quarterly Profit, and Its First Negative Cash Flow in 21 YearsCheck whether Alphabet's free cash flow turns positive again in Q3, and whether SpaceX holds its current share price (around $110s).
• Awaiting grading SK Hynix's Q2 Profit Could Hit ₩100 Trillion, but Analysts Say Much of It Isn't From ChipsCheck SK Hynix's Q2 earnings release for whether operating profit lands around ₩60tn as estimated, and whether the dividend is actually raised by a wide margin.
• Awaiting grading The S&P 500's Record 15.7% Margin Drops to 14.4% Without AlphabetCheck after Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple report Q2 results whether their margins improved similarly, that determines whether 15.7% reflects a broad AI boom or an Alphabet-sized illusion.

6 related posts

• Watch Q2 earnings are beating estimates by a record 31%. Take out two companies and it is 9%. The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-08-02
• Watch Why did the pension fund that always bought Korea's trading halts sell into five of them this year? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-30
• Watch Google Posted a Record Quarterly Profit, and Its First Negative Cash Flow in 21 Years Charlie Bilello · 2026-07-28
• Watch SK Hynix's Q2 Profit Could Hit ₩100 Trillion, but Analysts Say Much of It Isn't From Chips Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch The S&P 500's Record 15.7% Margin Drops to 14.4% Without Alphabet The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-26
• Bear Intel's $11 Billion Loss Wasn't Restructuring. It Was Intel's Own Stock Price Going Up The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24