valuation

Valuation is usually expressed through multiples like P/E or P/B. A high valuation prices in strong future growth, so it can fall sharply if that growth disappoints.

Predictions & track record (10)

• Awaiting grading Google Posted a Record Quarterly Profit, and Its First Negative Cash Flow in 21 YearsCheck whether Alphabet's free cash flow turns positive again in Q3, and whether SpaceX holds its current share price (around $110s).
• Awaiting grading China's CXMT Surges 470% on Debut, Becoming a $489 Billion Chipmaker OvernightCheck whether, after the January 27, 2027 lock-up expiry, CXMT trades closer to Nomura's ¥116 target or Morningstar's ¥14.90 fair value.
• Awaiting grading SK Hynix's Q2 Profit Could Hit ₩100 Trillion, but Analysts Say Much of It Isn't From ChipsCheck SK Hynix's Q2 earnings release for whether operating profit lands around ₩60tn as estimated, and whether the dividend is actually raised by a wide margin.
• Awaiting grading Meru: oil isn't the whole story behind the Treasury yield spike, the US deficit and Big Tech debt are crowding it tooCheck whether the August 5, 2026 US Treasury quarterly refunding statement drops the "at least" language guaranteeing stable auction sizes, which would signal more Treasury issuance ahead.
• Awaiting grading US job postings on Indeed fall to their lowest level in years, a sign the labor market is losing momentum well before official data catches upCheck the BLS JOLTS job openings reports for June and July 2026 (due out in August and September) to see whether they confirm the deterioration Indeed's real-time data is already flagging.
• Awaiting grading US 10-Year Treasury yield breaks above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025, topping last year's Liberation Day peakCheck whether the 10-Year yield keeps climbing past this level toward 5% or whether it retreats as Iran war tensions ease over the following two to three weeks.
• Awaiting grading S&P 500 erases $900 billion in market cap in a single day as Nasdaq 100 drops over 2.5% on Iran war escalation and tech earningsCheck whether the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recover this single-day loss within a week, or whether the selloff deepens as the Iran war continues.
• Awaiting grading Hedge funds are dumping US tech at the fastest pace in a decadeScore next week: did hedge-fund tech exposure fall to a 5-year low as Kobeissi's pace implied?
• Awaiting grading America's borrowing bill is climbing, and AI is helping push it upGrade at end of Q3 2026: did the 30-year US Treasury yield break above the May 20th peak of 5.20%?
• Awaiting grading Meritz: "this is not the time to sell Samsung and SK Hynix", 2027 DRAM supply covers only ~60% of demandTracking the call that H2 2026 DRAM supply covers only 75-80% of demand

16 related posts

• Watch Google Posted a Record Quarterly Profit, and Its First Negative Cash Flow in 21 Years Charlie Bilello · 2026-07-28
• Watch CXMT soared 472% on debut, on the back of a city government's 20-year bet 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-27
• Watch China's CXMT Surges 470% on Debut, Becoming a $489 Billion Chipmaker Overnight Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-27
• Watch SK Hynix's Q2 Profit Could Hit ₩100 Trillion, but Analysts Say Much of It Isn't From Chips Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch A Tiny K-Pop Label's Funding Rounds Are a Real-World Lesson in Korean Startup Investing 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-26
• Watch Meru: oil isn't the whole story behind the Treasury yield spike, the US deficit and Big Tech debt are crowding it too 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-25
• Bear US job postings on Indeed fall to their lowest level in years, a sign the labor market is losing momentum well before official data catches up The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear US 10-Year Treasury yield breaks above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025, topping last year's Liberation Day peak The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear S&P 500 erases $900 billion in market cap in a single day as Nasdaq 100 drops over 2.5% on Iran war escalation and tech earnings The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Musk repeats Optimus is Tesla's 'biggest product ever' as Q2 call flags Micron memory allocation and new supplier buildout Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-23
• Watch Samsung reportedly in talks to invest up to €1B in France's Mistral AI at a €20B valuation Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-22
• Watch AI is gutting entry-level software jobs, down 23% since ChatGPT launched, while senior roles grow The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Bear China unwinds $37 billion in margin debt over four days as memory chip stocks lead the rout The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Bear Hedge funds are dumping US tech at the fastest pace in a decade The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Bear America's borrowing bill is climbing, and AI is helping push it up The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-19
• Meritz: "this is not the time to sell Samsung and SK Hynix", 2027 DRAM supply covers only ~60% of demand Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-17