Serenity highlights a Meritz Securities report by analyst Kim Sunwoo with a simple thesis: the market is badly misreading semis, and the DRAM shortage gets worse from here, not better. The numbers are striking. In H2 2026, suppliers can fulfill only 75-80% of DRAM demand; by 2027, fulfillment falls into the 60% range. The market forecasts attached to the report put SK Hynix at a 3.5x 2027 P/E and Samsung at 3.9x, a deepening shortage priced at near-historic-low valuations. Serenity adds two corroborating signals: Intel's CEO said there will be "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028," and Micron has signed 16 long-term agreements (LTAs) with major customers, many on take-or-pay terms, customers pay whether they take the chips or not. Signs that memory demand is structural, not a passing boom.
Why it matters · Shortage deepening while P/Es sit near 3x, the street is saying the memory supercycle has barely begun.
Worth asking · Memory at a 3x P/E, opportunity or trap?