government bond

Governments issue bonds when taxes do not cover spending. Buyers get principal and interest unless the state defaults, so these are treated as the safest asset and their yield anchors every other rate, from mortgages to corporate debt. When a foreign central bank dumps them, the issuing country's long-term rates get pushed up.

Predictions & track record (11)

• Awaiting grading Japan says it will borrow dollars against its Treasuries, and it was Washington that asked first for the ceiling to be liftedScore as a hit if the Fed announces a per-country FIMA repo limit above $60 billion, and as a miss if it is unchanged by year end.
• Awaiting grading On July 31 the New York Fed sold euros to buy yenScore on the Fed's H.4.1 released August 6 (as of August 5): dollars borrowed by foreign monetary authorities against Treasuries moving off zero counts as the FIMA route opening, staying at zero counts as the original expectation missing.
• Awaiting grading If quarterly earnings and Fed guidance both get cut back, what will the market price on?In the first half of 2027, score whether the SEC adopted the semiannual reporting rule and whether any listed company actually elected it.
• Awaiting grading The 10-Year Treasury Yield Hit 4.7% and Oil Got the Blame. So Why Didn't Inflation Expectations Move?Check whether the August 5, 2026 US Treasury quarterly refunding statement drops the "at least" language guaranteeing stable auction sizes, which would signal more Treasury issuance ahead.
• Awaiting grading Japanese insurers just made their biggest bond purchase in three years. Is the buyer finally back?Check whether Japanese insurers post a third straight month of net buying in JGBs when July 2026 flow data is released, which would confirm this is a real trend rather than a one-off.
• Awaiting grading Trump says he's close to Iran's 'biggest attack ever.' Will this time be different?Check within roughly two weeks whether the US actually carries out the strike on Iran that Trump described as bigger than ever before, or whether the rhetoric fades without action as it has before.
• Awaiting grading The 10-Year yield just topped last year's tariff-panic peak. Is Iran the reason, or is it the Fed?Check whether the 10-Year yield keeps climbing past this level toward 5% or whether it retreats as Iran war tensions ease over the following two to three weeks.
• Hit The market didn't lose $900 billion to the Iran war on July 23. It lost $797 billion to AI-capex fearsBy July 29, 2026 the AI-capex-driven selloff had deepened rather than recovered: the Nasdaq 100 fell into correction territory (down over 10% from its June record) and the VanEck semiconductor ETF dropped for a fourth straight session, confirming AI-capex fears -- not the Iran war -- kept driving the market, as the original piece had argued.
• Awaiting grading Bitcoin ETFs pull in $900 million in a week, the fastest pace since early MayCheck in two weeks whether Bitcoin ETF weekly inflows keep accelerating past the $900M mark or fade back toward the prior week's $197M pace.
• Awaiting grading 10-Year Treasury yield nears 4.70% high as Iran war adds 70bp premiumCheck whether the 10-Year yield breaks above the 4.70% 52-week high and the 30-Year stays above 5.00%, or whether yields retreat as Iran war tensions ease.
• Awaiting grading America's borrowing bill is climbing, and AI is helping push it upGrade at end of Q3 2026: did the 30-year US Treasury yield break above the May 20th peak of 5.20%?

15 related posts

• Watch Japan says it will borrow dollars against its Treasuries, and it was Washington that asked first for the ceiling to be lifted 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-08-04
• Watch On July 31 the New York Fed sold euros to buy yen 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-08-03
• Watch If quarterly earnings and Fed guidance both get cut back, what will the market price on? Aswath Damodaran (Musings on Markets) · 2026-07-29
• Watch The 10-Year Treasury Yield Hit 4.7% and Oil Got the Blame. So Why Didn't Inflation Expectations Move? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-25
• Watch The S&P 500's Iran War Selloff Was Actually Three Different Days, and Iran Wasn't the Main Reason for Most of Them The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Bear Oracle's credit-default insurance jumps to a record high, with S&P placing the company just one notch above junk The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch Japanese insurers just made their biggest bond purchase in three years. Is the buyer finally back? The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Watch Trump says he's close to Iran's 'biggest attack ever.' Will this time be different? The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear The 10-Year yield just topped last year's tariff-panic peak. Is Iran the reason, or is it the Fed? The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear The market didn't lose $900 billion to the Iran war on July 23. It lost $797 billion to AI-capex fears The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Bitcoin ETFs pull in $900 million in a week, the fastest pace since early May The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bear 10-Year Treasury yield nears 4.70% high as Iran war adds 70bp premium The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Watch SpaceX's bonds crater weeks after the IPO: the credit market's warning to Musk 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Bear America's borrowing bill is climbing, and AI is helping push it up The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-19
• Watch The same profit is worth less depending on where it's earned. How does Damodaran price that? Aswath Damodaran (Musings on Markets) · 2026-07-15