HBM

High Bandwidth Memory: DRAM dies stacked vertically and bonded next to the GPU, essential for AI chips. Far pricier and higher-margin than commodity DRAM, it drives the memory supercycle, with SK hynix leading supply to Nvidia.

Predictions & track record (9)

• Awaiting grading The Day SK Hynix Locked In Xiaomi as Its First LPDDR6 Customer, Its Stock Fell Below IPO PriceCheck by end of December 2026 whether CXMT starts LPDDR6 mass production on schedule and begins supplying Xiaomi/Huawei, and whether SK Hynix's ADR recovers above its $149 IPO price.
• Awaiting grading SK Hynix leads HBM. Why is Samsung betting its comeback on a 2nm foundry process instead?To be scored when HBM5 actually ships (industry estimates put this around 2027-2028): whether the 2nm GAA base die reaches mass production and the 50%+ speed target over HBM4E holds up.
• Awaiting grading China's CXMT Surges 470% on Debut, Becoming a $489 Billion Chipmaker OvernightCheck whether, after the January 27, 2027 lock-up expiry, CXMT trades closer to Nomura's ¥116 target or Morningstar's ¥14.90 fair value.
• Awaiting grading SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat?Check whether AMD actually reaches SemiAnalysis's revised October 2026 target for CI test parity with Nvidia's CUDA on vLLM and SGLang gating tests.
• Awaiting grading AMD says a full HBM4 supply deal with Samsung is “almost there,” as Samsung's foundry chief flew in personally to close itWhether AMD and Samsung actually sign the definitive HBM4 supply agreement around Helios's end-of-Q3 shipping start will be checked in mid-October 2026.
• Awaiting grading A Morgan Stanley note turning bearish on memory chips is real, and may be behind Korea's KOSPI pullback, analyst Jukan confirmsCheck whether Q4 2026 memory price increases actually slow to around 5% quarter-over-quarter as Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim projected, or come in hotter, which would support the bull case instead.
• Awaiting grading Nvidia's CMX could soak up huge volumes of NAND, an Apple-sized new buyerScore later: does CMX-linked NAND demand actually climb toward the cited 100M+ terabytes in 2027?
• Awaiting grading Morgan Stanley: the memory shortage shows no signs of easing into 2028Score when Q3 memory contract prices print: did like-for-like DRAM rise at least 25% Q2->Q3 as Morgan Stanley forecast?
• Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profitAlphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction.

20 related posts

• Watch The Day SK Hynix Locked In Xiaomi as Its First LPDDR6 Customer, Its Stock Fell Below IPO Price Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-28
• Watch SK Hynix leads HBM. Why is Samsung betting its comeback on a 2nm foundry process instead? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch CXMT soared 472% on debut, on the back of a city government's 20-year bet 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-27
• Watch China's CXMT Surges 470% on Debut, Becoming a $489 Billion Chipmaker Overnight Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-27
• Watch Samsung and SK hynix stay cautious on 3D chip stacking as China's CXMT chases the niche Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bull SK hynix agrees to $750 billion five-year memory supply deal with Nvidia, Samsung signs separate $200 billion MOU with Broadcom Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bull SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat? SemiAnalysis · 2026-07-25
• Bull Analyst raises AI accelerator market forecast to $1.4 trillion by 2030 as AMD's MI500 adds optical interconnects Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bull Korea's presidential office says Samsung and SK hynix are about to announce “very large-scale” deals with US tech firms during President Lee Jae-myung's Silicon Valley trip Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bull AMD says a full HBM4 supply deal with Samsung is “almost there,” as Samsung's foundry chief flew in personally to close it Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bear A Morgan Stanley note turning bearish on memory chips is real, and may be behind Korea's KOSPI pullback, analyst Jukan confirms Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bull SK hynix starts hiring for 3D-stacked DRAM aimed at on-device AI, and says it already has a US customer lined up Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bull Open source AI may multiply memory demand, not shrink it Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Samsung starts building a hybrid-bonding line for next-gen HBM, picks Dutch supplier Besi Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Bear China unwinds $37 billion in margin debt over four days as memory chip stocks lead the rout The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Nvidia's CMX could soak up huge volumes of NAND, an Apple-sized new buyer Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Watch CXL bolts on memory like a warehouse. So why did Samsung push production to 2027? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Morgan Stanley: the memory shortage shows no signs of easing into 2028 Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Samsung extends its Nvidia alliance into NAND as V10 shipments begin Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20