메르

Korea's most-read finance blogger. Untangles macro, supply chains and geopolitics on Naver.

Predictions & track record (10)

• Awaiting grading China just started chip production on homegrown DUV tools. Is ASML's grip loosening?To be scored at end of 2027: whether the company's DUV tool shipments actually reached roughly 20 units.
• Awaiting grading With 0.6% share in China, why is Samsung weighing Chinese DRAM for its phones?Check when Samsung reports Q2 2026 earnings whether the Mobile eXperience division actually swung to an operating loss, as several brokerages estimated.
• Awaiting grading Meru: oil isn't the whole story behind the Treasury yield spike, the US deficit and Big Tech debt are crowding it tooCheck whether the August 5, 2026 US Treasury quarterly refunding statement drops the "at least" language guaranteeing stable auction sizes, which would signal more Treasury issuance ahead.
• Awaiting grading Meru: Houthi strike on two Saudi-flagged tankers signals blockade may widen to any ship loading Saudi oil, foreign carriers already turning backCheck whether the Houthis strike a foreign-flagged tanker carrying Saudi oil within the following three weeks, and whether Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping volumes keep falling.
• Awaiting grading Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK HynixCheck at Alphabet's Q3 2026 earnings, expected around late October, whether free cash flow returns positive and cloud order backlog keeps growing past the $514B Q2 level.
• Awaiting grading Kolon TissueGene's TG-C fails US Phase 3 trial, placebo outperforms on pain reliefGrade whether Kolon TissueGene's second Phase 3 trial (12301), due to report in October 2026, succeeds (beats placebo on pain and function) or fails.
• Awaiting grading Houthis declare a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening oil's last detour after HormuzScore later: does US retail gasoline stay above $4/gallon (diesel above $5) in the following weeks, and is Bab-el-Mandeb transit actually disrupted rather than just insured at a premium?
• Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profitAlphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction.
• Hit The 'Kimi moment': a $1.3B open-weight model that could reprice the whole US AI tradeIndependent benchmarking firm Artificial Analysis ranked Kimi K3 (full weights released July 27, 2026) #3 on its Intelligence Index (score 57), matching or surpassing GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.8 -- graded hit.
• Awaiting grading July 29: the SK Hynix ADR premium finally gets a closing mechanismScoring after the July 29 ADR conversion window opens: does the premium compress?

31 related posts

• Watch Why Nvidia is guaranteeing $250 billion of OpenAI's debt: the same reason showed up in the fiber-optic bubble 25 years ago 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-28
• Watch China just started chip production on homegrown DUV tools. Is ASML's grip loosening? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch CXMT soared 472% on debut, on the back of a city government's 20-year bet 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-27
• Watch With 0.6% share in China, why is Samsung weighing Chinese DRAM for its phones? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch Korea built 2x ETFs to pull money home from Hong Kong. Why didn't it come back? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-27
• Watch Why do the 2x Samsung and SK Hynix ETFs bleed principal even in a flat market? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-27
• Watch A Tiny K-Pop Label's Funding Rounds Are a Real-World Lesson in Korean Startup Investing 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-26
• Watch Russia-China gas pipeline talks collapse as China offers just $50, far below Russia's $250 ask 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-26
• Watch Meru: oil isn't the whole story behind the Treasury yield spike, the US deficit and Big Tech debt are crowding it too 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-25
• Watch US forced-labor tariff hits Korea at 12.5% starting today, worse terms than Taiwan and the EU 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-24
• Bull Meru: Houthi strike on two Saudi-flagged tankers signals blockade may widen to any ship loading Saudi oil, foreign carriers already turning back 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-24
• Bull Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK Hynix 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-23
• Bear Kolon TissueGene's TG-C fails US Phase 3 trial, placebo outperforms on pain relief 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-22
• Watch Coupang's Incheon warehouse fire brought under control after 61 hours, insurance structure eases the blow 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Houthis declare a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening oil's last detour after Hormuz 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-21
• Watch CXL bolts on memory like a warehouse. So why did Samsung push production to 2027? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Watch SpaceX's bonds crater weeks after the IPO: the credit market's warning to Musk 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Trump's Truth Social to sell a $100K/month 'Truth API', his posts, a millisecond early, for the algos 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-19
• Bull Hanwha's Philly Shipyard lands its first US defense job: two 'Golden Dome' missile-tracking ships 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-19
• Watch The 'Kimi moment': a $1.3B open-weight model that could reprice the whole US AI trade 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-18
• Watch The powder keg off Taiwan: a Japan-Philippines sea-boundary deal China reads as encirclement 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-18
• Half of America is quietly using Chinese AI: what OpenRouter's real usage data shows 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-17
• A brake on 2x leverage: Korea's cash rule aims at the Samsung/Hynix retail crowd 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-16
• July 29: the SK Hynix ADR premium finally gets a closing mechanism 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-16
• After Hormuz, the Red Sea: how one runway strike may close the detour route 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-16
• America's China curbs crack open an ESS window for Korea's battery trio 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-15
• The same share cost 51% more in New York than in Seoul. Why didn't the gap close? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-15
• Anthropic vs Alibaba: was Qwen's open-weight crown earned or distilled? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-14
• The three-piece China squeeze handing US energy storage to Korea 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-14
• Blockade first, toll later: reading Trump's Hormuz play 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-14