The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)

Widely-followed markets commentary on X, translating market-moving news into concrete numbers and calls.

Predictions & track record (19)

• Awaiting grading S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season DeliversCheck at Q3 2026 earnings season whether the S&P 500 net margin holds above 15.7% or reverses.
• Awaiting grading SanDisk sold NAND to Meta below its own quote. Does that mean demand is dying?To be scored on whether Q3 2026 QLC contract pricing settles above $0.38, and whether SanDisk's LTA share actually clears half of shipments.
• Awaiting grading US equity ETFs pull in a record $880 billion this year, on pace to blow past 2025's inflow recordCheck full-year 2026 US equity ETF inflow totals against Kobeissi's $1.4 trillion projection once year-end data is reported in early January 2027.
• Awaiting grading US job postings on Indeed fall to their lowest level in years, a sign the labor market is losing momentum well before official data catches upCheck the BLS JOLTS job openings reports for June and July 2026 (due out in August and September) to see whether they confirm the deterioration Indeed's real-time data is already flagging.
• Awaiting grading Japanese insurers make their biggest JGB purchase in three years, a sign Japan's bond market may finally be finding real domestic demandCheck whether Japanese insurers post a third straight month of net buying in JGBs when July 2026 flow data is released, which would confirm this is a real trend rather than a one-off.
• Awaiting grading Trump says he's 'close' to a decision on a massive attack on Iran, Axios reportsCheck within roughly two weeks whether the US actually carries out the strike on Iran that Trump described as bigger than ever before, or whether the rhetoric fades without action as it has before.
• Awaiting grading Intel posts Q2 revenue up 25% and its best quarterly growth in over 15 years, as shares surge more than 11% on AI data center demandCheck Intel's next quarterly report, expected around late October 2026, to see whether revenue lands in the guided $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion range and whether the AI data center segment keeps growing at a similar pace.
• Awaiting grading US 10-Year Treasury yield breaks above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025, topping last year's Liberation Day peakCheck whether the 10-Year yield keeps climbing past this level toward 5% or whether it retreats as Iran war tensions ease over the following two to three weeks.
• Awaiting grading S&P 500 erases $900 billion in market cap in a single day as Nasdaq 100 drops over 2.5% on Iran war escalation and tech earningsCheck whether the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recover this single-day loss within a week, or whether the selloff deepens as the Iran war continues.
• Awaiting grading Bitcoin ETFs pull in $900 million in a week, the fastest pace since early MayCheck in two weeks whether Bitcoin ETF weekly inflows keep accelerating past the $900M mark or fade back toward the prior week's $197M pace.
• Awaiting grading 10-Year Treasury yield nears 4.70% high as Iran war adds 70bp premiumCheck whether the 10-Year yield breaks above the 4.70% 52-week high and the 30-Year stays above 5.00%, or whether yields retreat as Iran war tensions ease.
• Awaiting grading Iran threatens to hit energy sites if the US bombs its power plants over Hormuz shotsGrade within the next few weeks whether either side follows through, an actual US strike on an Iranian power plant or bridge, or an Iranian strike on an energy site, or whether the standoff stays rhetorical.
• Awaiting grading AMD and Anthropic sign a multi-billion dollar chip supply deal, with AMD investing up to $5 billion back into AnthropicCheck around AMD's August 4, 2026 earnings call and through 2027 whether the Anthropic deal (2GW of MI450 chips, up to $5B AMD investment) proceeds on the announced schedule.
• Awaiting grading Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driverGrade in Q3 2026, once Q2 earnings season is complete, whether semiconductor companies' contribution to S&P 500 EPS growth actually reached the ~48% Kobeissi projected, and whether Amazon/Google/Meta/Microsoft's combined contribution fell to roughly 9%.
• Awaiting grading Supermicro shares jump 20% on record $60 billion order backlog despite soft revenueCheck Supermicro's audited fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 results on August 11, 2026, to see if the 60 billion dollar backlog and 15 to 17 percent margin guidance hold up.
• Awaiting grading Iran says it hit an Amazon datacenter in Bahrain, oil jumps back above $90Check whether Brent crude holds above $90/barrel through the end of July 2026, as Kobeissi projected.
• Awaiting grading Trump signs a fresh 50% tariff on Canadian goods, effective in 30 daysScore later: do these tariffs actually take effect around 2026-08-19 as scheduled, or get negotiated down, delayed, or challenged before then?
• Awaiting grading Hedge funds are dumping US tech at the fastest pace in a decadeScore next week: did hedge-fund tech exposure fall to a 5-year low as Kobeissi's pace implied?
• Awaiting grading America's borrowing bill is climbing, and AI is helping push it upGrade at end of Q3 2026: did the 30-year US Treasury yield break above the May 20th peak of 5.20%?

46 related posts

• Watch The semiconductor bear case hasn't changed in months. So why is the selling happening now? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season Delivers The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-26
• Watch Gold buying, cheap-money carry trades and bond-fund outflows all spiked together this week, and they don't agree on what's coming The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-26
• Watch SanDisk sold NAND to Meta below its own quote. Does that mean demand is dying? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bear US net credit balances hit a record negative $1.06 trillion as margin debt surges to $1.5 trillion The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-25
• Watch Money supply keeps growing faster than the economy across the G7, Kobeissi data shows The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Bull US equity ETFs pull in a record $880 billion this year, on pace to blow past 2025's inflow record The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Bear Intel's post-earnings rally evaporates, wiping out $90 billion in market cap in a single day The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch S&P 500 erases its gains and turns red as the Iran war escalates and tech stocks fall The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch US data center power demand seen surging 253% by 2035, to 194 gigawatts The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch Wall Street stops trading AI chipmakers and AI spenders as one trade, as their 30-day correlation collapses toward zero The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Bear Oracle's credit-default insurance jumps to a record high, with S&P placing the company just one notch above junk The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch Iran rejects a US-brokered ceasefire pushed by Iraqi mediators, and the war enters its 145th day, market commentator Kobeissi reports The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-24
• Watch US existing home prices hit a record $408,776 in June, even as new listings shrink to their lowest since December The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear US job postings on Indeed fall to their lowest level in years, a sign the labor market is losing momentum well before official data catches up The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Watch Japanese insurers make their biggest JGB purchase in three years, a sign Japan's bond market may finally be finding real domestic demand The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Watch Trump says he's 'close' to a decision on a massive attack on Iran, Axios reports The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Intel posts Q2 revenue up 25% and its best quarterly growth in over 15 years, as shares surge more than 11% on AI data center demand The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear US 10-Year Treasury yield breaks above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025, topping last year's Liberation Day peak The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear S&P 500 erases $900 billion in market cap in a single day as Nasdaq 100 drops over 2.5% on Iran war escalation and tech earnings The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Brent crude tops $100 a barrel, up 42% in 20 days, as the Iran war reignites inflation fears The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Brent crude jumps above $98 a barrel after Houthi forces strike two Saudi oil tankers, as US crude tops $90 for the first time since June 11 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull China's Star 50 tech fund pulls in a record $2 billion in a single day, driving the index's best day in nearly two years The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Bitcoin ETFs pull in $900 million in a week, the fastest pace since early May The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Iran's foreign minister and parliament speaker both threaten wider retaliation over Hormuz The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bear 10-Year Treasury yield nears 4.70% high as Iran war adds 70bp premium The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Iran threatens to hit energy sites if the US bombs its power plants over Hormuz shots The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bull On-chain tokenized stock trading is surging, and most of the growth is happening when Wall Street is closed The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bull AMD and Anthropic sign a multi-billion dollar chip supply deal, with AMD investing up to $5 billion back into Anthropic The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Watch Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driver The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Watch Workers' share of US income falls near a century-long low The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Watch China's rare-earth magnet exports to the US sink to lowest monthly average since 2021, despite October truce The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Watch China is building nuclear reactors faster than the rest of the world combined The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-21
• Bull Supermicro shares jump 20% on record $60 billion order backlog despite soft revenue The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-21
• Bull Iran says it hit an Amazon datacenter in Bahrain, oil jumps back above $90 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-21
• Watch Korea and the Nasdaq are moving in lockstep like never before, as the AI trade goes global The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-21
• Bear The bottom of the $1.3 trillion CLO market is shaking. Is it credit's early-warning light? The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Watch AI is gutting entry-level software jobs, down 23% since ChatGPT launched, while senior roles grow The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Bear China unwinds $37 billion in margin debt over four days as memory chip stocks lead the rout The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Mediators push a US-Iran ceasefire as Hormuz traffic collapses to 10 ships a day The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Trump signs a fresh 50% tariff on Canadian goods, effective in 30 days The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Watch S&P 500 stocks have almost never moved this independently, an all-time-low correlation The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Alphabet plans a 'frozen' chip that bakes Gemini into the silicon The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Bear Hedge funds are dumping US tech at the fastest pace in a decade The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Watch A $63B leverage unwind is sweeping through semiconductor ETFs The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-19
• Bear America's borrowing bill is climbing, and AI is helping push it up The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-19