Goldman Sachs held an expert call with a Chinese DRAM industry insider, and semiconductor analyst Jukan relayed the key takeaways. The headline point: Chinese DRAM makers' prices have already caught up to global leaders like Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron. "Yield" is the share of chips on a wafer that come out working. A lower yield means more defective chips get scrapped, so producing the same volume costs more. According to the call, Chinese suppliers' yields are still likely below the leaders', yet their prices haven't budged lower to compensate. Charging leader-level prices while carrying higher production costs points to one of two things: Chinese makers are eating the loss to defend market share, or state subsidies are covering the gap. Either way, it suggests global DRAM pricing power isn't sitting exclusively with the incumbent leaders the way it used to. The call also touched on the technology roadmap. Chinese DRAM makers are expected to make further progress on 3D-stacked DRAM in 2027, and capacity expansions underway in Hefei, Shanghai, and Beijing are slated to be fully operational by 2028. Some fabs reportedly run mostly on domestically produced Chinese equipment, with one notable exception: high-end lithography tools, the machines that etch circuit patterns onto wafers. That exception explains why US export controls on China's chip industry have zeroed in specifically on lithography equipment. The rest of the toolchain is already being replaced with domestic gear, so the underlying bet is that blocking lithography alone can still slow China's push for DRAM self-sufficiency. How much longer that bet holds is the thing to watch next.
Why it matters · If Chinese DRAM makers can match leader-level pricing despite a cost disadvantage, it signals the center of gravity in global memory pricing power may be shifting.
Worth asking · China's DRAM makers matching leader prices despite lower yields: share-defense at a loss, or subsidy power?