SpaceX Says It Will Reach 10 Gigawatts Next Year, but the Published Assumptions Do Not Add Up to $300 Billion a Year

An AI service does not run on a model alone. Every user question activates computing chips, and those chips need electricity and cooling equipment to carry away their heat. SpaceX sees that power shortage as a business opportunity. It says it expects to have close to 10 gigawatts of power available for AI computing by the end of 2027. Ten gigawatts is not a measure of calculation speed. It is the amount of electricity that servers and cooling equipment can draw at the same time.

SemiAnalysis argues that renting those servers to other AI companies could put SpaceX on a path to $300 billion of annualized revenue by the end of 2027. Annualized revenue takes a month or quarter of contracts and assumes they continue at the same pace for a full year. It is not revenue already collected over twelve months.

Why power comes first

AI models run on computing chips called GPUs. Adding more GPUs can produce more answers, but the power supply and cooling system must expand with them. A gigawatt is a unit used for power plants and large data centers. One gigawatt equals 1,000 megawatts, so reaching 10 gigawatts requires power equipment and server buildings to come together across several sites.

A conventional data center can spend years waiting for a grid connection. SpaceX has shortened that wait by installing generators beside its sites and producing electricity from natural gas. This can move faster, but the company must secure the generators, fuel supply, and emissions permits itself.

What SpaceX sells

SpaceX combined with an artificial-intelligence company formerly run by Elon Musk. That means the company sells rocket launches and satellite internet while also renting server capacity to companies that need to run AI models. Companies including Anthropic and Google already use SpaceX data centers. Reuters reported that these contracts lifted AI revenue, though part of their contracted value has not yet been recognized as revenue.

SpaceX does not need to reserve all 10 gigawatts for its own models. Renting spare servers can recover construction spending sooner, while short contracts leave room to take the capacity back for internal use.

Why Microsoft enters the story

Microsoft both invests in OpenAI and sells access to OpenAI models to business customers. A revised agreement changed how money moves through that relationship. The April 2026 agreement keeps Microsoft's right to use OpenAI models and products through 2032. It also ends the share of Microsoft's revenue that it had been paying to OpenAI.

Microsoft keeps OpenAI model rights through 2032 and stops paying a revenue share to OpenAI (OpenAI, 2026-04-27)

출처: openai.com

That structure may let Microsoft keep more customer revenue when it secures servers and sells more OpenAI-powered services. It explains why SemiAnalysis names Microsoft as a likely large buyer of SpaceX capacity. No three-gigawatt agreement between the two companies has been announced. Microsoft becoming the largest customer is an analyst forecast, not a signed deal.

The missing step in $300 billion

One gigawatt contains 1,000 megawatts. The article uses an annual price of $30 million to $50 million per megawatt. It also assumes that half of the six to eight incremental gigawatts built in 2027 are rented out. Multiplying those inputs produces $90 billion to $200 billion of annualized revenue. Reaching $300 billion requires more capacity to be sold or a price above the stated range. The published assumptions do not complete the $300 billion bridge. SpaceX would need to build well beyond 10 gigawatts, rent much more than half of the new capacity, or add other AI revenue.

Scarcity pricing will not last forever. Servers available immediately command a premium while power is tight, but competing data centers can push rental prices down as they open.

SpaceX's 2027 test

Can SpaceX switch on 10 gigawatts in 2027 and keep those servers rented at premium prices? A completed building does not count as usable capacity if power or GPUs arrive late. If 10 gigawatts show up as operating capacity and long-term customer revenue grows with it, construction speed has become a business advantage. If capacity misses the target or customers end short contracts, the $300 billion figure depended more on a lasting power shortage than on revenue already secured. For SpaceX investors, the useful numbers are announced power, power actually rented to customers, and cash left after construction spending. The $300 billion figure remains a scenario that needs all three to work, not current revenue.