EIA

EIA is the statistical agency within the US Department of Energy. It publishes weekly and monthly data on oil and gas inventories, production and refinery operations. Its datasets provide a common market baseline separate from the offices that implement energy policy.

Predictions & track record (4)

• Awaiting grading US oil reserves fell by 104 million barrels in five months, but the contracts promise more backUse Energy Department disclosures to total crude returned under the 2026 SPR exchange.
• Awaiting grading Reopening Hormuz is not a matter of signing a piece of paperScored by whether daily tanker transits through Hormuz have recovered to double digits by August 19.
• Awaiting grading Trump says Iran asked him to call off the strike. So why does Tehran say it never did?Score as a hit if tanker transits through Hormuz without prior Revolutionary Guards permission are confirmed by the end of August, and as a miss if passage stays permission-based or the closure holds.
• Awaiting grading A new warning: US natural gas could run short by 2028, and this time it's demand, not supplyFinal confirmation (mid-2028, whether supply fails to keep up with demand) is far off, so this checks an interim signal. In the EIA's 2026 winter outlook (typically released Oct), check whether natgas storage trajectory and production/demand forecasts point toward Smith's call of a worsening shortfall. Final judgment (including the 2030-depletion question) is re-checked mid-2028.

4 related posts

• Watch US oil reserves fell by 104 million barrels in five months, but the contracts promise more back Doomberg · 2026-08-09
• Watch Reopening Hormuz is not a matter of signing a piece of paper Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) · 2026-08-04
• Watch Trump says Iran asked him to call off the strike. So why does Tehran say it never did? Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) · 2026-08-02
• Watch A new warning: US natural gas could run short by 2028, and this time it's demand, not supply Doomberg · 2026-07-26