Reopening Hormuz is not a matter of signing a piece of paper

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on August 4 that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could arrive within the week. Brent crude fell that day to its lowest level in three weeks, and more than 1,000 ships are backed up waiting to cross the strait.

Bessent says there may be a deal Tuesday or Wednesday to open the Strait of Hormuz with freedom of movement (CNBC, 2026-08-04)

출처: cnbc.com

Traffic is already down to single digits

Economist Steve Hanke wrote that only 5 tankers crossed on August 3, versus 60 on the same day a year earlier. We could not verify those two figures against a primary source. The direction and scale, though, hold up elsewhere. Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 39 tanker transits for the week of July 13 to 19. USNI News reported that daily transits have stayed in single digits every day since July 19.

This is the second attempt

Nobody has been named to clear the mines

Even with a deal, ships cannot cross right away. Mines laid in the strait are still there. Bloomberg reported on August 4 that Iran is informally weighing letting European countries clear the mines. The same day, Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated publicly that only Iran will do the clearing.

Iran weighs allowing Europe to clear Hormuz mines (Bloomberg, 2026-08-04)

출처: finance.yahoo.com

Clearing mines does not end with a signature. Minesweepers have to comb a narrow channel back and forth, repeatedly, while sitting within range of Iran's coastal firepower the entire time. Until someone is named to send those ships, the freedom of movement written into the deal stays on paper. What Hanke blamed was Trump's decision. What is actually blocking traffic is sitting underwater.

What to watch on August 19

Whether this deal actually moved ships will be confirmed by transit counts, not by whether it was signed. If daily transits climb into double digits, some form of mine clearance has begun; if they stay in single digits, the deal amounted to an announcement. While the strait has been effectively shut, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE's Fujairah route have absorbed part of the volume. Combined, the two fall well short of Hormuz's normal throughput. So whether this strait opens or stays shut moves not just the oil price but Asian refiners' crude procurement costs, freight rates, and war risk insurance all at once.