GOOGLEGOOGL.US

Founded in 1998, the world's largest search and advertising company (parent: Alphabet). With YouTube, Android and Cloud, plus DeepMind's Gemini models and its own TPU chips, it's often called the only big-tech with the full AI stack.

CEO Sundar Pichai · Founded 1998 · Listed 2004.8 · HQ Mountain View, USA · Exchange NASDAQ · Website google.com

Predictions & track record (11)

• Awaiting grading Google Posted a Record Quarterly Profit, and Its First Negative Cash Flow in 21 YearsCheck whether Alphabet's free cash flow turns positive again in Q3, and whether SpaceX holds its current share price (around $110s).
• Awaiting grading Apple's stock rose just 1%. Why did it just become the world's most valuable company?To be scored in the first run of August: whether Apple's Thursday (7/30) earnings show capex guidance climbing again, and whether Apple holds onto the market-cap lead.
• Awaiting grading S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season DeliversCheck at Q3 2026 earnings season whether the S&P 500 net margin holds above 15.7% or reverses.
• Awaiting grading SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat?Check whether AMD actually reaches SemiAnalysis's revised October 2026 target for CI test parity with Nvidia's CUDA on vLLM and SGLang gating tests.
• Awaiting grading SemiAnalysis: Nvidia's next-gen Rubin chip shows 5x better performance per dollar than today's Blackwell, per early dataGrade whether Nvidia submits verifiable Rubin benchmark numbers to InferenceX by Q3 2026, and whether they roughly match today's early 5x per-dollar claim.
• Awaiting grading Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK HynixCheck at Alphabet's Q3 2026 earnings, expected around late October, whether free cash flow returns positive and cloud order backlog keeps growing past the $514B Q2 level.
• Awaiting grading Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai touts Gemini's 950M monthly users and 22B tokens processed per minute in his own take on an "amazing" Q2Check Alphabet's next quarterly report, expected around late October 2026, for an updated Gemini monthly active user count and API token throughput, to see whether growth keeps pace with this quarter's jump.
• Awaiting grading Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205BCheck in the following weeks whether optics and networking suppliers like $LITE rally on Google's raised capex guidance, and whether Microsoft and Meta echo the same capex increase when they report next week.
• Awaiting grading Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driverGrade in Q3 2026, once Q2 earnings season is complete, whether semiconductor companies' contribution to S&P 500 EPS growth actually reached the ~48% Kobeissi projected, and whether Amazon/Google/Meta/Microsoft's combined contribution fell to roughly 9%.
• Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profitAlphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction.
• Awaiting grading Bilello asks: are we in an earnings bubble?Grade after full-year 2026 results: did S&P 500 realized EPS growth come in near the ~24% expectation, or well below?

19 related posts

• Watch Google Posted a Record Quarterly Profit, and Its First Negative Cash Flow in 21 Years Charlie Bilello · 2026-07-28
• Watch Apple's stock rose just 1%. Why did it just become the world's most valuable company? 後藤達也 (Tatsuya Goto) · 2026-07-28
• Watch Closed AI blocked the breach investigation. Why is Nvidia betting security on openness? Jensen Huang (@JensenHuang) · 2026-07-27
• Watch S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season Delivers The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-26
• Bull SK hynix agrees to $750 billion five-year memory supply deal with Nvidia, Samsung signs separate $200 billion MOU with Broadcom Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bull SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat? SemiAnalysis · 2026-07-25
• Watch Uber may explore a split with Waymo, the Financial Times reports, as Google's self-driving unit turns from partner to rival Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-24
• Watch Trump opens Section 301 probe into EU over fines on Apple, Meta, Amazon and Google, threatens tariffs in response Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) · 2026-07-24
• Bull SemiAnalysis: Nvidia's next-gen Rubin chip shows 5x better performance per dollar than today's Blackwell, per early data SemiAnalysis · 2026-07-23
• Bull Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK Hynix 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-23
• Watch New to Stacks: trader Chris Camillo says the market's manic swings around Google's earnings are a reason to stay calm, not panic Chris Camillo (@ChrisCamillo) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai touts Gemini's 950M monthly users and 22B tokens processed per minute in his own take on an "amazing" Q2 Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-22
• Watch Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driver The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Watch Alphabet plans a 'frozen' chip that bakes Gemini into the silicon The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Half of America is quietly using Chinese AI: what OpenRouter's real usage data shows 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-17
• Bear Bilello asks: are we in an earnings bubble? Charlie Bilello · 2026-07-14
• Where the money went: Saylor blames AI for bitcoin's slide Marc Rubinstein (Net Interest) · 2026-07-03