Jukan (@jukan05)

Semiconductor and tech analyst on X, tracking memory, foundry and Asian chip supply-chain news.

Predictions & track record (26)

• Awaiting grading The Day SK Hynix Locked In Xiaomi as Its First LPDDR6 Customer, Its Stock Fell Below IPO PriceCheck by end of December 2026 whether CXMT starts LPDDR6 mass production on schedule and begins supplying Xiaomi/Huawei, and whether SK Hynix's ADR recovers above its $149 IPO price.
• Awaiting grading SK Hynix leads HBM. Why is Samsung betting its comeback on a 2nm foundry process instead?To be scored when HBM5 actually ships (industry estimates put this around 2027-2028): whether the 2nm GAA base die reaches mass production and the 50%+ speed target over HBM4E holds up.
• Awaiting grading China just started chip production on homegrown DUV tools. Is ASML's grip loosening?To be scored at end of 2027: whether the company's DUV tool shipments actually reached roughly 20 units.
• Awaiting grading With 0.6% share in China, why is Samsung weighing Chinese DRAM for its phones?Check when Samsung reports Q2 2026 earnings whether the Mobile eXperience division actually swung to an operating loss, as several brokerages estimated.
• Awaiting grading China's CXMT Surges 470% on Debut, Becoming a $489 Billion Chipmaker OvernightCheck whether, after the January 27, 2027 lock-up expiry, CXMT trades closer to Nomura's ¥116 target or Morningstar's ¥14.90 fair value.
• Awaiting grading SK Hynix's Q2 Profit Could Hit ₩100 Trillion, but Analysts Say Much of It Isn't From ChipsCheck SK Hynix's Q2 earnings release for whether operating profit lands around ₩60tn as estimated, and whether the dividend is actually raised by a wide margin.
• Awaiting grading SanDisk sold NAND to Meta below its own quote. Does that mean demand is dying?To be scored on whether Q3 2026 QLC contract pricing settles above $0.38, and whether SanDisk's LTA share actually clears half of shipments.
• Awaiting grading SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat?Check whether AMD actually reaches SemiAnalysis's revised October 2026 target for CI test parity with Nvidia's CUDA on vLLM and SGLang gating tests.
• Awaiting grading AMD says a full HBM4 supply deal with Samsung is “almost there,” as Samsung's foundry chief flew in personally to close itWhether AMD and Samsung actually sign the definitive HBM4 supply agreement around Helios's end-of-Q3 shipping start will be checked in mid-October 2026.
• Awaiting grading A Morgan Stanley note turning bearish on memory chips is real, and may be behind Korea's KOSPI pullback, analyst Jukan confirmsCheck whether Q4 2026 memory price increases actually slow to around 5% quarter-over-quarter as Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim projected, or come in hotter, which would support the bull case instead.
• Awaiting grading Intel confirms it decided in Q2 to go full high-volume production on its 14A chip process by 2028, a year ahead of what the market had assumedCheck whether Intel actually begins 14A risk production for internal products in the second half of 2027 as guided, the first checkpoint toward the stated 2028 high-volume ramp.
• Awaiting grading Nvidia's 800V power system for next-gen AI racks may slip to 2028, SemiAnalysis warns, but supply chain pushes backCheck around Q1 2027 whether Nvidia's 800V HVDC system reaches large-scale production on the original timeline or slips into 2028 as SemiAnalysis warned.
• Awaiting grading South Korea moves up crackdown on single-stock leverage products to July 31, but critics call it too littleCheck whether the July 31 deposit hike and the follow-on tracking-error rule due August 19 both take effect as scheduled, and whether trading volume in single-stock leverage products actually drops.
• Awaiting grading Nvidia's real moat is software, not silicon. Can AI coding tools crack it in a year?Grade around mid-2027 whether Huawei's chip software ecosystem (DeepSeek's compiler and TileLang tooling) has closed the gap with CUDA as Wenfeng predicted, and whether Nvidia's China-exposed growth underperformed as a result.
• Awaiting grading AMD and Anthropic sign a multi-billion dollar chip supply deal, with AMD investing up to $5 billion back into AnthropicCheck around AMD's August 4, 2026 earnings call and through 2027 whether the Anthropic deal (2GW of MI450 chips, up to $5B AMD investment) proceeds on the announced schedule.
• Awaiting grading SK hynix denies buying Intel's Ohio fab, but doesn't rule out a joint ventureCheck in the coming months whether SK hynix and Intel announce a joint venture or acquisition deal for the Ohio site.
• Awaiting grading Nvidia's advanced chip packaging plan is hitting technical snags that could threaten its 2029 roadmapCheck by H1 2027 whether TSMC has resolved the soldering issue on 9.5x reticle CoWoS-L packaging, and by 2029 whether Nvidia's Feynman GPU architecture ships on its expected schedule or slips due to packaging constraints.
• Awaiting grading TSMC to raise foundry prices up to 10% in 2027, with bigger premiums for rush AI chip ordersCheck in early 2027 whether TSMC's new pricing (5-10% base, plus 10-15% premium on extra HPC orders) takes effect as reported and how customers respond.
• Awaiting grading China weighs restricting overseas transfer of AI training data and model weights at Alibaba, ByteDance, Zhipu AIWatch whether China's Ministry of Commerce formalizes restrictions on overseas AI data and model-weight transfers in the coming months, and whether it affects future open-weight releases from Alibaba, ByteDance, or Zhipu AI.
• Awaiting grading Analyst raises AMD price target to $640, says Anthropic deal could beat Meta and OpenAI'sTrack whether AMD officially confirms Anthropic as a gigawatt-scale customer and whether the stock approaches the $640 price target over the following months.
• Awaiting grading Xiaomi raises phone shipments as OPPO and vivo push back on Samsung's next price hikeScore in Q3 earnings season: did Samsung's Q3 memory prices actually rise as guided, or did OPPO/vivo-style pushback force smaller increases than planned?
• Awaiting grading Washington reportedly eyes tougher curbs on Chinese AI after Moonshot's Kimi K3Score later: does Washington actually issue formal hosting-liability rules, a procurement ban, or an export blacklist targeting Chinese AI models in the following weeks or months?
• Awaiting grading Nvidia's CMX could soak up huge volumes of NAND, an Apple-sized new buyerScore later: does CMX-linked NAND demand actually climb toward the cited 100M+ terabytes in 2027?
• Awaiting grading Morgan Stanley: the memory shortage shows no signs of easing into 2028Score when Q3 memory contract prices print: did like-for-like DRAM rise at least 25% Q2->Q3 as Morgan Stanley forecast?
• Awaiting grading Server DRAM spot prices blow out to a 146% premiumGrade after major hyperscalers report Q2/Q3 2026 earnings: did server DRAM contract prices post a clear upward revision, following the July spot surge?
• Awaiting grading Foxconn cracks the Dell-Supermicro server duopoly with a $52B SpaceX AI orderScore when Hon Hai reports 2026 H2 results or updates guidance: did it raise its outlook citing AI-server orders like this SpaceX deal?

48 related posts

• Watch The Day SK Hynix Locked In Xiaomi as Its First LPDDR6 Customer, Its Stock Fell Below IPO Price Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-28
• Watch SK Hynix leads HBM. Why is Samsung betting its comeback on a 2nm foundry process instead? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch China just started chip production on homegrown DUV tools. Is ASML's grip loosening? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch The semiconductor bear case hasn't changed in months. So why is the selling happening now? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Bull The inside story of how Samsung is lifting DRAM output 15% at Hwaseong without a new fab Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch With 0.6% share in China, why is Samsung weighing Chinese DRAM for its phones? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch China's CXMT Surges 470% on Debut, Becoming a $489 Billion Chipmaker Overnight Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-27
• Watch SK Hynix's Q2 Profit Could Hit ₩100 Trillion, but Analysts Say Much of It Isn't From Chips Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Bull Intel's server CPU prices jumped 48% in a quarter, and not because it charged more Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-26
• Watch Storage's new yardstick for AI data centers: not $/TB, but $/GPU-hour Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-26
• Watch Goldman Sachs expert call: China's DRAM prices already rival global leaders despite lower yields Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bear Huawei's AI chip shipments set to double this year to about 1.5 million units, WSJ reports Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Watch SanDisk sold NAND to Meta below its own quote. Does that mean demand is dying? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Watch Samsung and SK hynix stay cautious on 3D chip stacking as China's CXMT chases the niche Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bull SK hynix agrees to $750 billion five-year memory supply deal with Nvidia, Samsung signs separate $200 billion MOU with Broadcom Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Watch Apple lobbies White House to allow Chinese memory chips as Micron pushes back, WSJ reports Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bull SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat? SemiAnalysis · 2026-07-25
• Bull Analyst raises AI accelerator market forecast to $1.4 trillion by 2030 as AMD's MI500 adds optical interconnects Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bull Korea's presidential office says Samsung and SK hynix are about to announce “very large-scale” deals with US tech firms during President Lee Jae-myung's Silicon Valley trip Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bull AMD says a full HBM4 supply deal with Samsung is “almost there,” as Samsung's foundry chief flew in personally to close it Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Watch Equipment delivery times for chipmakers have nearly doubled, and Samsung and SK hynix are now placing orders early to get ahead of the delay Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bear China's CXMT gets bold enough to push around Huawei on chip prices, and now charges more than Samsung for memory, analyst Jukan reports Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bear A Morgan Stanley note turning bearish on memory chips is real, and may be behind Korea's KOSPI pullback, analyst Jukan confirms Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bull SK hynix starts hiring for 3D-stacked DRAM aimed at on-device AI, and says it already has a US customer lined up Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bull Intel confirms it decided in Q2 to go full high-volume production on its 14A chip process by 2028, a year ahead of what the market had assumed Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Watch Nvidia's 800V power system for next-gen AI racks may slip to 2028, SemiAnalysis warns, but supply chain pushes back Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Watch South Korea moves up crackdown on single-stock leverage products to July 31, but critics call it too little Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Bear China's YMTC overtakes Micron and SanDisk in NAND market share, closing in on Kioxia Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Reuters: Intel and AMD in talks for multi-year CPU supply deals with Chinese customers as prices surge and lead times stretch to six months Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Bear Nvidia's real moat is software, not silicon. Can AI coding tools crack it in a year? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Samsung Electro-Mechanics signs MLCC supply deal with an unnamed 'large global company', extending Big Tech's part hoarding beyond memory Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Bull AMD and Anthropic sign a multi-billion dollar chip supply deal, with AMD investing up to $5 billion back into Anthropic The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Open source AI may multiply memory demand, not shrink it Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-22
• Watch Samsung reportedly in talks to invest up to €1B in France's Mistral AI at a €20B valuation Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-22
• Watch SK hynix denies buying Intel's Ohio fab, but doesn't rule out a joint venture Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-22
• Watch Nvidia's advanced chip packaging plan is hitting technical snags that could threaten its 2029 roadmap Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Bull TSMC to raise foundry prices up to 10% in 2027, with bigger premiums for rush AI chip orders Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Watch China weighs restricting overseas transfer of AI training data and model weights at Alibaba, ByteDance, Zhipu AI Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Bull Analyst raises AMD price target to $640, says Anthropic deal could beat Meta and OpenAI's Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Bull Samsung starts building a hybrid-bonding line for next-gen HBM, picks Dutch supplier Besi Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Watch Xiaomi raises phone shipments as OPPO and vivo push back on Samsung's next price hike Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Watch Washington reportedly eyes tougher curbs on Chinese AI after Moonshot's Kimi K3 Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Nvidia's CMX could soak up huge volumes of NAND, an Apple-sized new buyer Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Morgan Stanley: the memory shortage shows no signs of easing into 2028 Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Samsung extends its Nvidia alliance into NAND as V10 shipments begin Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Server DRAM spot prices blow out to a 146% premium Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Watch The memory Big Three quietly walk away from their own CXL chips Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-20
• Bull Foxconn cracks the Dell-Supermicro server duopoly with a $52B SpaceX AI order Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-19