YIELD

Yield is the percentage of chips cut from a single wafer that pass quality tests and work as intended. A low yield means more defective chips are scrapped, raising the cost of producing each usable chip. Yield improvement is one of the main ways chipmakers cut costs and boost margins over a product's life.

Predictions & track record (10)

• Awaiting grading The Day SK Hynix Locked In Xiaomi as Its First LPDDR6 Customer, Its Stock Fell Below IPO PriceCheck by end of December 2026 whether CXMT starts LPDDR6 mass production on schedule and begins supplying Xiaomi/Huawei, and whether SK Hynix's ADR recovers above its $149 IPO price.
• Awaiting grading SK Hynix leads HBM. Why is Samsung betting its comeback on a 2nm foundry process instead?To be scored when HBM5 actually ships (industry estimates put this around 2027-2028): whether the 2nm GAA base die reaches mass production and the 50%+ speed target over HBM4E holds up.
• Awaiting grading Meru: oil isn't the whole story behind the Treasury yield spike, the US deficit and Big Tech debt are crowding it tooCheck whether the August 5, 2026 US Treasury quarterly refunding statement drops the "at least" language guaranteeing stable auction sizes, which would signal more Treasury issuance ahead.
• Awaiting grading Trump says he's 'close' to a decision on a massive attack on Iran, Axios reportsCheck within roughly two weeks whether the US actually carries out the strike on Iran that Trump described as bigger than ever before, or whether the rhetoric fades without action as it has before.
• Awaiting grading US 10-Year Treasury yield breaks above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025, topping last year's Liberation Day peakCheck whether the 10-Year yield keeps climbing past this level toward 5% or whether it retreats as Iran war tensions ease over the following two to three weeks.
• Awaiting grading S&P 500 erases $900 billion in market cap in a single day as Nasdaq 100 drops over 2.5% on Iran war escalation and tech earningsCheck whether the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recover this single-day loss within a week, or whether the selloff deepens as the Iran war continues.
• Awaiting grading Bitcoin ETFs pull in $900 million in a week, the fastest pace since early MayCheck in two weeks whether Bitcoin ETF weekly inflows keep accelerating past the $900M mark or fade back toward the prior week's $197M pace.
• Awaiting grading 10-Year Treasury yield nears 4.70% high as Iran war adds 70bp premiumCheck whether the 10-Year yield breaks above the 4.70% 52-week high and the 30-Year stays above 5.00%, or whether yields retreat as Iran war tensions ease.
• Hit Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profitAlphabet's Q2 2026 earnings (reported July 22, 2026) beat revenue and profit estimates, but the company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B from the prior $180-190B, and GOOGL shares fell about 5-7% on the capex hike despite the beat -- confirming Meru's call that the capex line, not profit, would drive the market reaction.
• Awaiting grading America's borrowing bill is climbing, and AI is helping push it upGrade at end of Q3 2026: did the 30-year US Treasury yield break above the May 20th peak of 5.20%?

18 related posts

• Watch The Day SK Hynix Locked In Xiaomi as Its First LPDDR6 Customer, Its Stock Fell Below IPO Price Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-28
• Watch SK Hynix leads HBM. Why is Samsung betting its comeback on a 2nm foundry process instead? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch Why do the 2x Samsung and SK Hynix ETFs bleed principal even in a flat market? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-27
• Watch Gold buying, cheap-money carry trades and bond-fund outflows all spiked together this week, and they don't agree on what's coming The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-26
• Watch Goldman Sachs expert call: China's DRAM prices already rival global leaders despite lower yields Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bear Huawei's AI chip shipments set to double this year to about 1.5 million units, WSJ reports Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Watch Meru: oil isn't the whole story behind the Treasury yield spike, the US deficit and Big Tech debt are crowding it too 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-25
• Watch Trump says he's 'close' to a decision on a massive attack on Iran, Axios reports The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear US 10-Year Treasury yield breaks above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025, topping last year's Liberation Day peak The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear S&P 500 erases $900 billion in market cap in a single day as Nasdaq 100 drops over 2.5% on Iran war escalation and tech earnings The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Bitcoin ETFs pull in $900 million in a week, the fastest pace since early May The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bear 10-Year Treasury yield nears 4.70% high as Iran war adds 70bp premium The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bear The bottom of the $1.3 trillion CLO market is shaking. Is it credit's early-warning light? The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Meru: Alphabet's Wednesday earnings are the first stress test of the AI capex cycle, watch the CAPEX line, not the profit 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Watch SpaceX's bonds crater weeks after the IPO: the credit market's warning to Musk 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Bear America's borrowing bill is climbing, and AI is helping push it up The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-19
• Watch When money flows too easily, a market gets weaker, not stronger. Hobart's 'overlubricated' economy Byrne Hobart (The Diff) · 2026-07-16
• Watch AI made code cheap and private credit shook. Is this a real credit event, or just nerves? Howard Marks (Oaktree) · 2026-04-09