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The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-28 · original: EN

Funds that lend directly to Asian companies just raised the least in 12 years. Where did the money go?

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Asian private credit funds raised just $1.2 billion in the first half of 2026, the lowest amount for this period in at least 10 years.

Investor appetite for private credit is weakening globally.

The Kobeissi Letter · 2026.07.28

Funds that lend directly to companies in Asia raised $1.2 billion in the first half of this year. Set against $9.5 billion in the same period a year ago and $20.2 billion four years ago, fundraising has essentially stopped. Only 5 funds closed. There were 29 in 2025 and 53 in 2022.

Asian private credit fundraising falls to 12-year low (Private Equity Wire, 2026-07-27) ↗

Private credit here means a fund, rather than a bank, lending straight to a company. Borrowers tend to be firms that cannot clear a bank's credit committee or need money faster, and they pay a higher rate for it. The money behind those funds comes from institutions such as pension funds and insurers.

Did appetite cool, or move?

The original post closes by saying investor appetite for private credit is weakening globally. An earlier line in the same post says something else. Large institutions are still allocating to the asset class, only more selectively, favouring large US managers with proven track records over smaller Asian funds. Read the two lines together and the picture changes. Money did not leave private credit. It moved from Asia to the United States.

Where the institutional money went: large US managers with a track record.
Where the institutional money went: large US managers with a track record. · RMajouji · CC BY 2.5

Why is Asia cut first?

When defaults rise, lenders fall back on collateral and enforcement. How reliable that fallback is varies enormously by country. In its second-quarter review, the international law firm Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer names three obstacles in Asia. Legal regimes are fragmented, enforcement outcomes are inconsistent in similar situations, and a high share of borrowers are family-owned companies. There is a further problem in the paperwork itself. Unlike bank loan documents refined through decades of litigation, many private credit agreements have not yet been stress-tested in court. The gaps only show up once something goes wrong.

Asia private capital Q2 2026: buyout activity and fundraising muted, private credit under pressure (Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, 2026-07-21)
출처: hsfkramer.com
US private credit default rate (12 months to May)6.0%
Prior month, April6.0%
Since the series began in Aug 2024highest
Q2 redemption requests (20 funds)over $22bn
Share actually paid outunder 40%
Money left locked up$14bn

The premise that defaults are rising checks out. But these figures come from the US, not Asia. An explanation that treats the retreat from Asia as a purely Asian problem does not sit well with them.

Retrieved 2026-07-29 · Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer report of 2026-07-21, citing Fitch and the Financial Times

The common reading

Asian fundraising collapsed, so private credit as an asset class is cooling.

VS
What the data shows

Institutions are still allocating. As defaults rose they cut Asia, where recovery is least certain, and concentrated the money in large US managers.

The same $1.2 billion divides readers depending on whether they see an asset class cooling or capital relocating.

So what settles it?

It comes down to one question. Is this $1.2 billion a signal that private credit as a whole is cooling, or that Asia alone was cut? If the whole class is cooling, second-half fundraising by the large US managers should fall too. If only Asia was cut, US fundraising holds or grows and what shrinks is the number of funds. The distinction matters for Korean investors for a specific reason. Asian private credit has been one of the channels companies here use to raise money outside the banking system. As that channel narrows, firms that cannot clear a bank's credit committee have fewer places to go, and the companies with the tightest cash positions feel it first.

In three lines

What happened next

Awaiting gradingGrade on the full-year 2026 tallies published in early 2027. If US private credit fundraising fell alongside Asia, the asset class cooled. If US held or grew while only Asia shrank, it was a relocation of capital.

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