PER

Short for Price-to-Earnings Ratio. A P/E of 20x means the market is pricing the stock at 20 years of its current earnings. Within the same industry, a higher P/E usually signals the market expects faster future profit growth. A forward P/E built on earnings that haven't happened yet, though, can become meaningless if that growth assumption turns out wrong.

Predictions & track record (19)

• Awaiting grading The Day SK Hynix Locked In Xiaomi as Its First LPDDR6 Customer, Its Stock Fell Below IPO PriceCheck by end of December 2026 whether CXMT starts LPDDR6 mass production on schedule and begins supplying Xiaomi/Huawei, and whether SK Hynix's ADR recovers above its $149 IPO price.
• Awaiting grading SK Hynix leads HBM. Why is Samsung betting its comeback on a 2nm foundry process instead?To be scored when HBM5 actually ships (industry estimates put this around 2027-2028): whether the 2nm GAA base die reaches mass production and the 50%+ speed target over HBM4E holds up.
• Awaiting grading China's CXMT Surges 470% on Debut, Becoming a $489 Billion Chipmaker OvernightCheck whether, after the January 27, 2027 lock-up expiry, CXMT trades closer to Nomura's ¥116 target or Morningstar's ¥14.90 fair value.
• Awaiting grading S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season DeliversCheck at Q3 2026 earnings season whether the S&P 500 net margin holds above 15.7% or reverses.
• Awaiting grading A new warning: US natural gas could run short by 2028, and this time it's demand, not supplyGrade in mid-2028: is US natural gas supply starting to fall short of demand as Smith predicted, with storage tracking toward depletion by 2030?
• Awaiting grading SanDisk sold NAND to Meta below its own quote. Does that mean demand is dying?To be scored on whether Q3 2026 QLC contract pricing settles above $0.38, and whether SanDisk's LTA share actually clears half of shipments.
• Awaiting grading SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat?Check whether AMD actually reaches SemiAnalysis's revised October 2026 target for CI test parity with Nvidia's CUDA on vLLM and SGLang gating tests.
• Awaiting grading A Morgan Stanley note turning bearish on memory chips is real, and may be behind Korea's KOSPI pullback, analyst Jukan confirmsCheck whether Q4 2026 memory price increases actually slow to around 5% quarter-over-quarter as Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim projected, or come in hotter, which would support the bull case instead.
• Awaiting grading Intel posts Q2 revenue up 25% and its best quarterly growth in over 15 years, as shares surge more than 11% on AI data center demandCheck Intel's next quarterly report, expected around late October 2026, to see whether revenue lands in the guided $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion range and whether the AI data center segment keeps growing at a similar pace.
• Awaiting grading Nvidia's real moat is software, not silicon. Can AI coding tools crack it in a year?Grade around mid-2027 whether Huawei's chip software ecosystem (DeepSeek's compiler and TileLang tooling) has closed the gap with CUDA as Wenfeng predicted, and whether Nvidia's China-exposed growth underperformed as a result.
• Awaiting grading SemiAnalysis: Nvidia's next-gen Rubin chip shows 5x better performance per dollar than today's Blackwell, per early dataGrade whether Nvidia submits verifiable Rubin benchmark numbers to InferenceX by Q3 2026, and whether they roughly match today's early 5x per-dollar claim.
• Awaiting grading Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK HynixCheck at Alphabet's Q3 2026 earnings, expected around late October, whether free cash flow returns positive and cloud order backlog keeps growing past the $514B Q2 level.
• Awaiting grading Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai touts Gemini's 950M monthly users and 22B tokens processed per minute in his own take on an "amazing" Q2Check Alphabet's next quarterly report, expected around late October 2026, for an updated Gemini monthly active user count and API token throughput, to see whether growth keeps pace with this quarter's jump.
• Awaiting grading Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205BCheck in the following weeks whether optics and networking suppliers like $LITE rally on Google's raised capex guidance, and whether Microsoft and Meta echo the same capex increase when they report next week.
• Awaiting grading Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driverGrade in Q3 2026, once Q2 earnings season is complete, whether semiconductor companies' contribution to S&P 500 EPS growth actually reached the ~48% Kobeissi projected, and whether Amazon/Google/Meta/Microsoft's combined contribution fell to roughly 9%.
• Awaiting grading SemiAnalysis: Meta's infrastructure team wastes billions through political dysfunction, threatens AMD's chip dealWatch whether Meta reverses the halved-spec decision on its custom AMD MI450 chip, or whether AMD's Meta-specific volume disappoints as SemiAnalysis warns.
• Awaiting grading Analyst raises AMD price target to $640, says Anthropic deal could beat Meta and OpenAI'sTrack whether AMD officially confirms Anthropic as a gigawatt-scale customer and whether the stock approaches the $640 price target over the following months.
• Awaiting grading Houthis declare a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening oil's last detour after HormuzScore later: does US retail gasoline stay above $4/gallon (diesel above $5) in the following weeks, and is Bab-el-Mandeb transit actually disrupted rather than just insured at a premium?
• Awaiting grading Meritz: "this is not the time to sell Samsung and SK Hynix", 2027 DRAM supply covers only ~60% of demandTracking the call that H2 2026 DRAM supply covers only 75-80% of demand

31 related posts

• Watch The Day SK Hynix Locked In Xiaomi as Its First LPDDR6 Customer, Its Stock Fell Below IPO Price Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-28
• Watch SK Hynix leads HBM. Why is Samsung betting its comeback on a 2nm foundry process instead? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-27
• Watch Closed AI blocked the breach investigation. Why is Nvidia betting security on openness? Jensen Huang (@JensenHuang) · 2026-07-27
• Watch China's CXMT Surges 470% on Debut, Becoming a $489 Billion Chipmaker Overnight Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-27
• Watch Why do the 2x Samsung and SK Hynix ETFs bleed principal even in a flat market? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-27
• Watch S&P 500 Profit Margins Hit a Record 15.7% as AI Earnings Season Delivers The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-26
• Watch A new warning: US natural gas could run short by 2028, and this time it's demand, not supply Doomberg · 2026-07-26
• Watch Storage's new yardstick for AI data centers: not $/TB, but $/GPU-hour Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-26
• Watch Russia-China gas pipeline talks collapse as China offers just $50, far below Russia's $250 ask 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-26
• Bear Huawei's AI chip shipments set to double this year to about 1.5 million units, WSJ reports Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Watch SanDisk sold NAND to Meta below its own quote. Does that mean demand is dying? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Watch Apple lobbies White House to allow Chinese memory chips as Micron pushes back, WSJ reports Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bull SemiAnalysis, long tough on AMD, now says 'great chance.' Can it really break the CUDA moat? SemiAnalysis · 2026-07-25
• Bull Applied Optoelectronics isn't left behind by co-packaged optics, industry insider says pluggable transceivers still have a decade left Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-24
• Bull Analyst raises AI accelerator market forecast to $1.4 trillion by 2030 as AMD's MI500 adds optical interconnects Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bear A Morgan Stanley note turning bearish on memory chips is real, and may be behind Korea's KOSPI pullback, analyst Jukan confirms Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-24
• Bull Intel posts Q2 revenue up 25% and its best quarterly growth in over 15 years, as shares surge more than 11% on AI data center demand The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-23
• Bear Nvidia's real moat is software, not silicon. Can AI coding tools crack it in a year? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-23
• Bull SemiAnalysis: Nvidia's next-gen Rubin chip shows 5x better performance per dollar than today's Blackwell, per early data SemiAnalysis · 2026-07-23
• Bull Meru: Alphabet raises 2026 capex to $195-205B even as free cash flow turns negative, good news for Samsung and SK Hynix 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-23
• Bull Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai touts Gemini's 950M monthly users and 22B tokens processed per minute in his own take on an "amazing" Q2 Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Alphabet's Q2 beat blows past estimates, and Google raises 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-22
• Watch Semiconductor stocks are about to overtake Big Tech as the S&P 500's biggest earnings driver The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-22
• Bull Open source AI may multiply memory demand, not shrink it Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-22
• Bear SemiAnalysis: Meta's infrastructure team wastes billions through political dysfunction, threatens AMD's chip deal SemiAnalysis · 2026-07-22
• Bull Analyst raises AMD price target to $640, says Anthropic deal could beat Meta and OpenAI's Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-21
• Bull Houthis declare a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, threatening oil's last detour after Hormuz 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-21
• Watch Alphabet plans a 'frozen' chip that bakes Gemini into the silicon The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) · 2026-07-20
• Meritz: "this is not the time to sell Samsung and SK Hynix", 2027 DRAM supply covers only ~60% of demand Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-17
• Half of America is quietly using Chinese AI: what OpenRouter's real usage data shows 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-17
• America's China curbs crack open an ESS window for Korea's battery trio 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-15