substrate

High-performance chips need denser, higher-grade boards that few suppliers can make, and AI accelerator supply has repeatedly been constrained by boards rather than by the chips themselves.

Predictions & track record (10)

• Awaiting grading Graphics card prices rise up to 30% this month, and the part that got expensive is not the graphics chipIn December 2026, score whether Korean prices for NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 50 series held the August increase or fell back toward pre-increase levels.
• Awaiting grading The 12,800Mbps on CXMT's LPDDR6 is China's lithography limit written into a spec sheetScore by Oct 31, 2026 whether CXMT's LPDDR6 has entered mass production with a device announced, and at what speed. Staying around 12,800Mbps confirms the lithography-ceiling call; reaching 14,400Mbps refutes it. No announcement by then counts as a miss.
• Awaiting grading Why does AXT's backlog refuse to shrink after revenue grew 164% in a year?First check at AXT's Q3 2026 earnings (expected early Nov 2026): indium phosphide capacity-expansion progress and GAAP gross margin. Margin holding around 50% means AXT is capturing pricing power; a drop into the mid-40s signals the shortage premium fading. Full confirmation of the capacity doubling checked after year-end.
• Awaiting grading Four big tech firms have guided 2026 AI capex up to $745 billion, and a third of that money is borrowedScore on third-quarter results, looking at capex and funding together. Capex rising while bond issuance and equity raises shrink counts as operating cash catching up, and both rising together counts as deepening reliance on credit.
• Awaiting grading Microsoft's capex outlook came down to $175 billion, and not because it plans to spend lessIn January 2027, score whether Microsoft's calendar 2026 capital spending landed near $175 billion and whether the reclassification left reported capex below the actual increase in spending.
• Awaiting grading Samsung Electro-Mechanics told customers it will raise MLCC prices 30%. The reason it gave was not raw materials.To be scored by the end of September on whether Murata joined the MLCC price increases and whether Samsung Electro-Mechanics' 30% showed up in actual contract prices.
• Awaiting grading The next AI hardware bottleneck isn't memory. It's a tiny capacitor whose price already tripled.To be scored on whether Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Taiyo Yuden's book-to-bill ratios stay above 1.25 through Q3-Q4, and whether inventory that fell below 30 days returns to normal by year-end.
• Miss Apple's stock rose just 1%. Why did it just become the world's most valuable company?Apple briefly took the market-cap lead on 7/27 (~$4.95T), but its 7/30 earnings brought weak Q4 guidance on supply constraints and rising memory costs; the stock plunged 7.35% on 7/31 (closing $308.91, market cap $4.54T) and Nvidia reclaimed the crown ($4.86T) after just four days. FY2026 capex guidance came in around $13-14B, only a modest rise from FY2025's $12.7B rather than a clear rebound.
• Awaiting grading Substrates, Memory and Specialty Gas All Tighten at Once in the AI Chip Supply ChainCheck whether substrate, DDR5 and WF6 prices keep climbing together next quarter, and whether actual AI server shipment delays get reported.
• Awaiting grading SanDisk sold NAND to Meta below its own quote. Does that mean demand is dying?To be scored on whether Q3 2026 QLC contract pricing settles above $0.38, and whether SanDisk's LTA share actually clears half of shipments.

14 related posts

• Watch Graphics card prices rise up to 30% this month, and the part that got expensive is not the graphics chip Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-08-03
• Watch The 12,800Mbps on CXMT's LPDDR6 is China's lithography limit written into a spec sheet Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-08-01
• Bull Why does AXT's backlog refuse to shrink after revenue grew 164% in a year? Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-31
• Watch Four big tech firms have guided 2026 AI capex up to $745 billion, and a third of that money is borrowed Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-31
• Watch Microsoft's capex outlook came down to $175 billion, and not because it plans to spend less Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-29
• Bull Samsung Electro-Mechanics told customers it will raise MLCC prices 30%. The reason it gave was not raw materials. Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-28
• Bull The next AI hardware bottleneck isn't memory. It's a tiny capacitor whose price already tripled. Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-28
• Watch Apple's stock rose just 1%. Why did it just become the world's most valuable company? 後藤達也 (Tatsuya Goto) · 2026-07-28
• Bull Intel's server CPU prices jumped 48% in a quarter, and not because it charged more Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-26
• Watch Substrates, Memory and Specialty Gas All Tighten at Once in the AI Chip Supply Chain Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-26
• Watch SanDisk sold NAND to Meta below its own quote. Does that mean demand is dying? Jukan (@jukan05) · 2026-07-25
• Bull Tesla stock lost $140 billion in a day. Musk spent the earnings call talking about a robot with no revenue yet Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-23
• Watch CXL bolts on memory like a warehouse. So why did Samsung push production to 2027? 메르 (ranto28) · 2026-07-20
• Watch Serenity maps the AI hardware bottlenecks, and who supplies them Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) · 2026-07-20