6척
Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) · 2026-08-10 · original: EN

Six ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday

S
Steve Hanke@steve_hanke

THANKS TO TRUMP, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINS CLOSED FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES.

Six ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday 9 August. That was the end of a slide from 15 on Friday and 11 on Saturday. Across the three days, 32 ships went through.

Over the same three days, 116 crossings were counted at Bab el-Mandeb, the gate to the Red Sea. One chokepoint spent a quiet three days while the other moved more than three times as many ships.

Control is not traffic

The same day, the US president offered a different picture. The only one with control of the Strait of Hormuz is the United States Navy, he said; the blockade has been infallible, and only the ships Washington wants are let in. He added that the entire strait had been mine-swept and was under 100% control.

Trump's reading

The Navy holds the strait and the mines are cleared. We pick which ships pass.

VS
The traffic log's reading

Who holds it and how many went through are different questions. Six ships passed on Sunday.

The two statements do not refute one another. Holding a waterway is not the same as ships moving through it, and cargo owners and insurers price the second number.

The routes those 32 ships took

The vessel-tracking count also recorded which lanes the weekend traffic used. The Iranian Unilateral Scheme is the single lane Iran has designated on its own side of the water.

Iranian Unilateral Scheme 17 shipsRoute undetermined 10 shipsOther 5 ships

More than half of the ships that got through moved along the lane Iran laid out. That is where you can see who is choosing the route.

Kpler and vessel-tracking counts (2026-08-07 to 09) · Anadolu Agency 2026-08-10 · retrieved 2026-08-11

The US Energy Information Administration counted about 21 million barrels a day of oil moving through this strait in 2022. A fifth of the oil the world burns came out through this one narrow channel. That channel has not returned to normal traffic since the end of February.

What the oil price answered on 10 August

The market answered the next day in numbers. West Texas Intermediate settled at $82.13 a barrel, up 5.0%, and Brent finished at $87.72. That was the day Trump said the United States would demand compensation from Iran. Iran's foreign minister said sanctions relief and war reparations come first.

That report frames the outlook as clouded while each side demands payment from the other. So the thing to read from here is the crossing count rather than the statements. Daily traffic back above 15 means the strait has opened in fact rather than in words, and single digits mean ships are not moving no matter who holds it. The company chartering the tanker and the refinery waiting for its cargo are watching the same number.

In three lines
  • Thirty-two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the past weekend.
  • The same day the US president said the Navy controls that strait 100%.
  • The two statements do not contradict each other. Control is not the same as traffic, and freight rates and crude prices watch the second one.

Scheduled for gradingAwaiting grading

Metric
Average daily crossings of the Strait of Hormuz
Now
32 ships over 7 to 9 August 2026, and 6 on the Sunday
Grading date
The September 2026 tallies
Hit
15 or more per day on average, meaning the strait has reopened in actual traffic
Miss
Fewer than 15 per day on average, meaning it stays shut regardless of who claims control

Sources

  1. Original post Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) · 2026-08-10 · the post quoting the vessel-tracking count
  2. Anadolu Agency Weekend crossings of 15, 11 and 6, and 116 at Bab el-Mandeb · 2026-08-10
  3. Al Jazeera Iranian demands, the Hormuz outlook and the oil price · 2026-08-10
  4. Business Recorder WTI settled at $82.13 (+5.0%) and Brent at $87.72 · settlement of 2026-08-10
  5. US Energy Information Administration About 21 million barrels a day of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2022
  6. Coverage of the president's remarks The 100% control and mine-clearing remarks · 2026-08-10 · The Jerusalem Post

Retrieved 2026-08-11 · crossing counts cover 7 to 9 August 2026 from vessel-tracking data, and oil prices are settlements for 10 August 2026.

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