Corporate profits are at a high, China bought 20 tonnes of gold, and information layoffs were 2.0%

Three macro numbers carried by the Kobeissi Letter last week did not move in one direction. US companies earned near-record profits, China's central bank bought more gold, and information-sector layoffs rose, but by less than the post claimed. Risk appetite, demand for insurance, and labor stress coexisted.

Check the profit denominator

Kobeissi wrote that US pretax corporate profits reached 14% of GDP. The exact ratio depends on whether inventory-valuation and capital-consumption adjustments are included. The direction is clear. BEA's current-production measure of corporate profits reached a $4.4265 trillion annual rate in Q1 2026, up $74.4 billion from the prior quarter. Corporate America retained strong cash-generation power despite slowdown concerns.

Gold rose for a 21st month

The People's Bank of China added 20 tonnes of gold in July. It was the largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and extended the buying streak to 21 months. Demand for insurance against relying on a single reserve asset rose alongside strong equity prices.

Layoffs were 0.3 points lower

Kobeissi reported June information layoffs and discharges at 2.3%, or 63,000 workers. The current BLS JOLTS table says 2.0%, or 56,000. That is still up from 1.6% and 44,000 in May, but it cannot support the post's recession comparison at face value.

A week of two kinds of insurance

The three numbers do not show an economy breaking in one direction. High profits support risky-asset cash flows; Chinese gold buying adds insurance against institutional and currency risk. Rising information layoffs show stress in parts of tech and media, but correcting the official figure reduces its force. The next test pairs Q2 profits due August 26 with the next information layoff rate. If profits hold and layoffs stay at or above 2%, concentrated profits and sector labor stress coexist. If either falls, this week's tension is easing.