Samsung pushed its DRAM share to 39%, and the share it took came from SK hynix, not from China

Counterpoint Research puts SK hynix at 26% of second-quarter DRAM revenue and Micron at 25%. The gap that narrowed to a single point is not the one at the top, but the one between second and third place.

Samsung reclaims the DRAM lead as Micron narrows the gap with SK hynix (Stocktwits, 2026-08-04)

출처: stocktwits.com

A company lost share in a quarter when memory prices were climbing, and that company is the one selling the most high-bandwidth memory for AI servers.

Why did only hynix slip while prices rose

Share here is counted in money taken, not in units shipped. So a maker can ship the same volume and still lose share if it is paid less for it. The author points at two things. One is the price of HBM3E, which came down in this year's renegotiations rather than going up. The other is HBM4. With the next generation running late, there was no product in the second quarter that could carry a new price. Counterpoint points at the same place. It explains a year-on-year fall in HBM pricing by softening HBM3E prices and the delay in the HBM4 rollout.

Signing first means being locked in lower

The author adds one more piece. SK hynix is reported to have signed its long-term supply agreements ahead of its rivals, which leaves its fixed prices below theirs. Such an agreement fixes both volume and price years in advance. If prices are heading down, whoever signed first wins; if prices are heading up, whoever signed later wins. This is the second case. The maker that locked in supply earliest appears to have carried the lowest fixed prices through the quarter for exactly that reason. The same contract works as a shield when prices fall, so this is not a sign that the terms were wrong.

When HBM4 reprices the book

Counterpoint expects HBM prices to recover in the second half as the next generation of HBM and the GPUs that use it reach the market. It also expects demand for AI server CPUs to hold up pricing on conventional DRAM.

Global DRAM and HBM market share, quarterly (Counterpoint Research, updated 2026-06-08)

출처: counterpointresearch.com

If that holds, this count is closer to a photograph of the quarter just before the repricing. If the gap between the two widens again in the third quarter, the cause was late repricing; if it stays put or flips, the cause sits deeper, in the contract terms. What this quarter shows is not China closing in, but what a contract signed early does when prices turn upward.